Examining China's 'Shadow Stimulus'
中国的“影子刺激”
China's shadow banking sector has gradually moved from the periphery of the economy to become an almost indispensible driver of growth. Not that long ago, the shadows were where small firms got the cash no one else would give them. Later, when China moved to rein in real estate speculation, the shadow banks proved the be lifeblood of property developers who were cut off almost overnight from bank credit.
国的影子银行已经逐步脱离经济的边缘，变成几乎不可或缺的增长推动器。不久之前，影子银行还只是那些通过其他渠道拿不到资金的小企业的融资渠道。后来，当中国采取措施抑制炒房的时候，房地产开发商几乎在一夜之间被切断银行信贷，于是影子银行成了他们的命脉。
And now, we have the shadow stimulus.
现在又有了“影子刺激”。
According to data issued Friday, China's trust companies the main pillar of China's shadow banking system with more than $1 trillion under management provided 755.05 billion yuan worth of new funding to infrastructure projects over the course of the first nine months of the year (here in Chinese). Local government financing vehicles which are responsible for funding most of the country's infrastructure construction raised a further 715.87 billion yuan from bond issuance, according to China International Capital Corp.
中国的信托公司管理着超过1万亿美元的资产，是中国影子银行系统的主要支柱。据上周五发布的数据，今年头九个月，信托公司为基建项目提供了价值人民币7,550.5亿元的新资金。中国国际金融有限公司(China International Capital Corp.)数据显示，负责为全国多数基建项目融资的地方政府融资平台通过发行债券，另外还融资人民币7,158.7亿元。
The rise of non-bank funding sources has been vital to keeping growth ticking over in the midst of an economic slowdown.
非银行融资渠道的兴起，对经济减速时期增长速度的维持发挥了至关重要的作用。
But is it a good idea?
但这是不是一个好办法？
The trend marks a distinct transfer of risk from the state (in the form of bank lending) to private investors, and comes at a time when local government finances are in a very bad shape. That's a bad thing.
这种趋势标志着，风险明显从政府（以银行贷款的形式）转移至民间投资者，而且此时正值地方政府财政状况非常糟糕的时候。这不是什么好事。
Analysts say that not only have the banks stepped back from taking the primary role in funding local governments' latest round of infrastructure expansion, but that a portion of funds raised from trusts and bonds has gone toward repaying older bank loans. It's hard to estimate just how much, but a survey by MacQuarie Securities of 50 bonds issued by local government financing vehicles in August found that 40% of the funds raised were to be used for repaying loans and replenishing working capital, which can be used to cover interest expenses.
分析师说，在地方政府最新一轮的基础设施扩建行动中，银行没有发挥主要融资来源的作用，不仅如此，还有一部分通过信托公司和债券发行筹集的资金被用来偿还以往的银行贷款。很难估计这部分资金到底有多少，但麦格理证券(MacQuarie Securities)调查地方政府融资平台8月份发行的50只债券发现，40%的资金将被用于偿还贷款和补充运营资金，而运营资金又可用于付息
'It is shadow banking activities that have allowed many projects to obtain fresh funds and hence avoid default,' Xiao Gang, chairman of Bank of China Ltd. wrote in a column published in the state-run China Daily newspaper on Oct. 12. 'This could be one of the major reasons why the formal banking system in general is still enjoying declining non-performing loan ratios, despite the weakening repayment capabilities of some borrowers.'
中国银行董事长肖钢在10月12日出版的官媒《中国日报》(China Daily)上撰写专栏文章说，正是影子银行活动使得很多项目能够拿到新的资金，从而避免违约。他说，在部分借款人偿付能力减弱的情况下，正规银行系统总体不良贷款率依然在下降，而这可能正是背后的主要原因之一。
Banks haven't completely abdicated their responsibilities. Their lending to local government financing vehicles on the rise, albeit not at the pace of bonds or trusts. China Banking Regulatory Commission Chairman Shang Fulin said Wednesday that outstanding bank loans to the financing vehicles were 9.25 trillion yuan at end of September. Business newspaper China Business News earlier reported outstanding loans stood at 9.1 trillion yuan at the end of September 2011.
银行并没有完全放弃它们的责任。它们为地方政府融资平台提供的贷款正在增长，只是增长速度没有债券或信托那么快。中国银行业监督管理委员会主席尚福林周三说，截至今年9月末，银行面向融资平台的贷款余额为人民币9.25万亿元。据《第一财经日报》早前报道，截至2011年9月末，平台贷款余额为人民币9.1万亿元。
Typically the bond market wouldn't be classified as being part of a country's shadow financial infrastructure, and particularly not in China where the market is dominated by state banks and insurance companies. However, analysts and bankers say a large portion of bank holdings of enterprise bonds -- a bond category dominated by local government financing vehicle issuance -- could actually have been bought using funds raised from wealth management products.
一般来讲，债券市场不会被归为某国影子金融架构的一部分，更何况是在国有银行和保险公司主导债市的中国。但分析师和银行家说，银行所持企业债券中的很大一部分，可能就是利用它们通过发行理财产品筹集的资金购买的。企业债券是主要以地方政府融资平台所发行债券为主的一个债券类别。
Banks sell wealth management products to their customers as a low-risk, high-return alternative to simply depositing money in a bank. Given that banks disclose very little about how they invest the products, it's difficult to say just how much is ending up in local government debt. However, a large chunk goes into the bond market - about half of all wealth management product prospectuses say the funds will be invested in bonds and money market products - and given the high returns on enterprise bonds, analysts say they are an easy way banks can boost the return they offer customers.
银行将理财产品出售给其客户，它们将这些产品描述为比把钱存银行合算的低风险、高回报产品。鉴于各银行对其将出售理财产品获得的资金如何投资披露甚少，因此难以说清这些资金最终有多少借给了地方政府。不过这些资金中有相当一部分进入了债券市场。中国约一半理财产品的募款说明书都称，所募集的资金将投资于债券和货币市场产品。分析师们说，鉴于企业债券的高回报率，投资这类产品是银行提高其给予客户回报率的便捷途径。
Also, mutual funds have ploughed into the market this year, holding 21% of all enterprise bonds at the end of September, up from 14% at the end of 2011, according to the central bank-backed China Central Depository & Clearing Co., signaling a further shift in infrastructure funding into private hands. Banks hold 32% of enterprise bonds.
此外，共同基金今年也加大了对企业债市场的参与。有中国央行做后盾的中央国债登记结算有限责任公司称，截至今年9月底，共同基金持有中国全部企业债券的21%，高于2011年底时的14%，这表明基础设施建设资金目前已更加依靠从私人手中筹集。银行持有全部企业债券的32%。
On the face of it a more active bond market and more diverse investment opportunities for Chinese savers is a good thing. And at a press conference Sunday night People's Bank of China Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan pointed out that the size of China's shadow banking sector is much smaller than the Western equivalent that precipitated the global financial crisis.
从表面上看，债券市场变得更加活跃以及投资机会更加多样化对中国储户来说是件好事。中国央行行长周小川在周日晚间举行的一个新闻发布会上指出，中国影子银行业的规模比西方的影子银行业要小得多，正是后者引发了此次全球金融危机。
But the lingering problem is that no one really knows where the buck stops.
但一个迟迟得不到答案的问题是，没人真正知道影子银行业的钱最终都流到哪里去了。
Bank customers buy wealth management products with the expectation the bank will pick up the tap if something goes wrong. Meanwhile, the country's banking regulator says that the buyers of wealth management products, despite what they might think, bear the risk of their purchase. Investors are enthusiastic about local government bonds and trust products because they assume that lower level government debt is implicitly backed by higher levels of government. Local government officials aren't too fussed as long as they can keep rolling over the debt until they have departed office and it becomes the next guy's problem. And the state banks are trying to minimize their exposure by having private funding sources foot the bill for what has in the past been their responsibility.
银行客户在购买理财产品时，他们想当然地以为，如果产品出了问题银行会来收拾残局。而中国的银行业监管机构则说，理财产品的风险要由产品买家来承担，不管这些买家自己是怎么想的。投资者对地方政府发行的债券和信托产品很感兴趣，因为他们以为较低级别政府所举借的债务是由较高级别政府暗中提供担保的。而对地方政府官员来说，他们只要能在自己的任期内不断地借新债还旧债就没有什么值得太担忧的，因为此后债务就是其继任者的问题了。国有银行则试图通过让私人资金来为地方政府的支出买单以最大限度地降低它们在向地方政府放贷方面的风险敞口，过去向地方政府的建设项目提供资金一直是它们的责任。
Even if we decide that all this speculation is just parlor games and that a government bailout is inevitable if things go south, what is not inevitable is the fate of private investors. Will the bailout come in time, or will investors be waiting months - or years - for their money? Will investors have to take a haircut? Are all companies set up as investment vehicles by local governments entitled to the same official support, or have some investors backed the wrong horse?
即使我们认定有关地方债务风险的猜测都不过是猜谜游戏，如果事情出了差错，政府将不可避免地出手救助，但私人投资者的命运如何就不好说了。政府的救助会及时到来吗？抑或投资者要等上数月或者数年才等到救助资金？投资者自己须承担一部分损失吗？被地方政府成立用来充当其投资工具的那些公司都能得到同等程度的官方支持吗？会不会有一些投资者押错了宝的情况出现呢？
The edifice isn't about to come tumbling down. But one of the nice things about having banks fund the local governments is that the banks can be leaned upon to suck up any bad debts and help the governments through the hard times. On the other hand, Chinese investors who feel wronged have a long history of protesting outside of government buildings and taking to the courts. Let's hope China's debt problems stay financial and not political.
虽然不会发生中国金融体系整体坍塌的事情，当让银行为地方政府提供资金的一个如意算盘是，地方政府的任何坏账都可依靠银行来吸收掉，银行可以帮助政府渡过难关。而那些感觉自己受到了不公正对待的中国投资者则一向有到政府门外抗议以及到法庭打官司的传统。让我们祈望中国的债务问题能不超出金融领域的范畴、不要演变为政治问题吧。
WSJ
2012-11-13
WSJ
754次
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