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奥巴马罗姆尼争夺民意的五个战场

纽约时报 2012-10-17 纽约时报 402次


 


Most Crucial Time for Candidates May Be After the Debate

辩论场外

奥巴马罗姆尼争夺民意的五个战场


 

The most important time for the presidential candidates this week may be after Tuesday night’s debate.

对总统候选人而言,本周最重要的时刻也许会出现在周二晚间辩论之后。

True, the 90 minutes that they spend in the town-hall-style debate on Long Island on Tuesday night could be a game changer if one candidate performs terribly, as President Obama was perceived to have done two weeks ago.

辩论将于周二晚间在长岛举行,历时90分钟,以市政厅会议(town-hall-style)的形式进行。诚然,如果某位候选人表现糟糕,就像奥巴马总统两周前留给人们的印象那样,这场辩论就可能改变大选格局。

But if the debate is seen to be more of a draw, then the winner will be decided in the hours and days after — with perceptions shaped by whichever campaign manages the post-debate time more effectively.

但是,如果结果看起来更像是一场平局,胜负就将取决于接下来的几个小时以至几天,取决于哪个阵营能更有效地管理辩论后的时间,并以此来影响舆论。

Here are five aspects both campaigns must consider:

以下是两个阵营都必须考虑的五个方面:

TWITTER In the old days (meaning four years ago), campaigns would send e-mails to reporters during the debate, hoping to shape their coverage afterward. Years earlier, runners would drop printed news releases at each desk in the cavernous filing center where reporters covering a debate were working.

Twitter:过去(即四年前),竞选团队会在辩论期间给记者发电子邮件,希望能影响后来的报道基调。再以前,报道辩论的记者会在空间庞大的新闻中心里工作,通讯员会把打印好的新闻通稿放到每张桌子上。

Now, both campaigns have armies of supporters posting on Twitter as soon as the debate begins. They are armed with hashtags and snarky observations as they seek to guide the early reaction to the debate.

如今,两个阵营都拥有庞大的支持者队伍,一旦辩论开始就在Twitter上发帖。他们拿#标签和犀利的言论来当武器,试图引导人们对辩论的早期反应。

Last Thursday, Republicans quickly seized on Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s grin. The week earlier, they were posting about Mr. Obama’s listlessness, even before the debate ended.

上周四,共和党人迅速抓住了副总统小约瑟夫·R·拜登(Joseph R. Biden Jr.)的笑容。上上周,还没等辩论结束,他们就开始发帖讨论奥巴马无精打采的表现。

Neither side can control Twitter and its millions of users. But they can try to influence it.

两方都不能控制Twitter及其无数用户,但却可以试着施加影响。

THE SPIN ROOM But Twitter does not mean that the campaigns can forget about the journalists. The old-fashioned spin room — which used to be in a separate room from the reporters — is now just a designated area where campaign officials and surrogates eagerly make themselves available to reporters.

媒体接待室:Twitter的存在并不意味着竞选团队可以忘记记者。旧时的媒体接待室是记者工作区之外的一个独立房间,如今则只是一片指定的区域,以便竞选官员和代理人在此向记者卖力吆喝。

After Mr. Obama’s performance two weeks ago, Mr. Romney’s spinners were out in force, grinning from ear to ear. Mr. Obama’s advisers slinked out late, hardly able to contain their gloom.

两周前,奥巴马表现糟糕。此后,罗姆尼的接待员精神抖擞、笑容满面,奥巴马的顾问则姗姗来迟,几乎没法掩饰自己的沮丧。

The goal on Tuesday will be to shape the newspaper stories and the early-morning conversations, which can help to set the tone for the rest of the day.

本周二的目标将是对报纸文章和第二天清晨的谈话节目施加影响,后者将影响全天的基调。

THE CANDIDATES The best way to slow down a negative narrative — or enhance a helpful one — is to use the candidate quickly after a debate.

两位候选人:减少负面评论或强化正面评论的最佳方法是在辩论后尽快让候选人发挥作用。

Two weeks ago, after Mr. Obama’s performance rattled his supporters, the Democratic campaign followed through with two huge, preplanned rallies. Despite the damage he had done to his campaign the night before, Mr. Obama was feisty and aggressive. That helped dampen the criticism a bit.

两周前,奥巴马的表现让支持者惊慌不已。民主党竞选团队立即让两场计划好的大型集会跟上。尽管奥巴马前晚对竞选造成了损害,但他在集会上表现得精力旺盛、咄咄逼人。这对略微减弱批评的声音起到了一定作用。

But there are risks. During the nominating campaign, Mr. Romney often stepped on his own success by making a gaffe the morning after a good debate or a primary night victory. Both candidates will need to avoid making any news that might take away from a victory.

但是,这样的方法也蕴含着风险。党内提名阶段,罗姆尼常常在辩论表现良好或初选胜利之夜的第二天早晨失言,由此自坏好局。两位候选人都需要避免制造任何可能断送胜利的新闻。

THE ADS Most of the voters in key battleground states are not likely to attend a rally this week. However, they will see the ads produced by the candidates.

广告:关键州的大多数选民本周都不太可能参加集会活动,但他们会看到候选人制作的广告。

Mr. Obama produced an attack ad just hours after his debate with Mr. Romney, and another — an ad featuring Big Bird — a few days later. Mr. Romney went up quickly with ads promoting his five-point economic plan, to reinforce the idea that he has provided specifics to voters.

与罗姆尼辩论的短短数小时之后,奥巴马团队就制作了一则攻击性广告,几天后又推出了一则以大鸟(Big Bird)为主角的广告。罗姆尼团队则迅速播出了推销他五点经济计划的广告,以此巩固他给选民提供了具体措施的印象。

Bet on more ads — quickly — after Tuesday night’s contest.

可以打包票,周二晚上的辩论之后,很快就会有广告出炉。

MORE DEBATE PREP One big challenge for the campaigns will be the short amount of time between Tuesday’s debate and the final one, which will take place next Monday. The campaigns will need to try to shape perceptions from the first, even as they prepare for the next.

准备下一轮辩论:两个团队都面临一个重大挑战,那就是本轮辩论和最后一轮辩论之间的时间间隔很短。一个在本周二,另一个在下周一。双方都需要竭力引导前一轮辩论之后的舆论,同时又要为后一轮做准备。

No matter how much the candidates and their staff members try to respond to the aftermath of Tuesday’s debate this week, they cannot forget the reality: Another is right around the corner.

不管两位候选人及其幕僚本周如何竭力应对周二辩论的余波,他们都不能忘记以下事实:又一轮辩论已经近在咫尺。

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