美联储曾考虑提前缩减QE3

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美联储曾考虑提前缩减QE3

天之聪教育 2013-05-03 天之聪教育 378次

美联储曾考虑提前缩减QE3

Fed early release reveals QE3 debate

The US Federal Reserve was ready to slow down its QE3 programme of asset purchases in the summer or early autumn but weak payrolls data may already have changed its plans.

美联储(Federal Reserve)曾准备好在今年夏季或初秋缩减第三次量化宽松(QE3)的资产购买规模，但疲软的就业数据或许已使美联储改变了这方面的计划。

According to the minutes of its March meeting, released early on Wednesday after an accidental leak, “many” participants at the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee said that continued labour market improvement should prompt a QE slowdown “at some point over the next several meetings”.

因为意外泄露而于周三提前公布的美联储3月份会议纪要显示，参加会议的多位联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)成员认为，就业市场形势的持续改善应当在“未来几次会议间的某个时点”促使美联储放缓量化宽松操作。联邦公开市场委员会负责设定美国的基准利率。

According to two sources in Congress, the accidental release came from Brian Gross, a special assistant to the Board of Governors who works on government relations.

据美国国会的两位知情人士透露，意外泄露的会议纪要来自布莱恩•格罗斯(Brian Gross)，他是联邦储备委员会负责政府关系事务的特别助理。

The next meetings of the FOMC are in April, mid-June, late July and then mid-September. Only a “few” participants thought that the economy would be weak enough to keeping QE going at its current pace until late in the year.

联邦公开市场委员会的未来几次会议将分别于4月份、6月中旬、7月下旬以及9月中旬举行。只有“少数几位”与会者认为，美国经济形势依然疲软，因此在今年底之前应当继续按照目前规模实施量化宽松。

The minutes show that the Fed was gearing up for a tapering of the QE programme at its last meeting, much earlier than markets had expected, but that debate may already be out of date after feeble jobs growth of just 88,000 in March.

会议纪要显示，美联储已在3月份的会议上为逐步缩小量化宽松规模做准备，这远远早于市场预期。但鉴于美国就业增长形势疲软、3月份非农就业人数仅增长8.8万人，这方面的辩论可能已经变得不合时宜。

Given the latest data, the Fed is likely to wait and see whether the March figures were just a blip or a sign of deeper weakness in the labour market before deciding how long to keep buying assets.

面对最新的经济数据，美联储很可能将选择等待，以判断3月份的数据究竟是属于短期波动，还是反映了劳动力市场更深层次的疲软态势，并据此决定资产购买操作还应持续多长时间。

The early release of the minutes at 9am eastern time, against the scheduled 2pm release time, came after the Fed realised the email had been mistakenly sent containing the minutes on Tuesday afternoon.

此次会议纪要是在美国东部时间周三上午9点提前发布的，原定发布时间是当天下午2点，因美联储发现含有会议纪要的电子邮件已于周二下午错误送出。

“A Fed staffer inadvertently sent an email with the minutes to a group of contacts,” said the Fed. “That group of people was mostly Congressional staffers and trade association members in Washington.”

美联储表示：“一名联储职员无意之中将一封含有会议纪要的电子邮件发给了一组联系人。收件者大多为国会职员或者位于华盛顿的行业协会成员。”

The distribution list, thought to contain about 100 people, is one that the Fed regularly uses to send out releases.

这份邮件发送列表是美联储在对外发布信息时经常使用的，据信其中含有约100名联系人。

“At this time we don’t know if there was any trading [based on the release],” said the Fed. “We are working with the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission to make sure they have the information they need.”

美联储声称：“目前我们尚不知晓是否有人（基于此次泄露）进行交易。我们正在与美国证券交易委员会(Securities and Exchange Commission, SEC)以及商品期货交易委员会(Commodity Futures Trading Commission, CFTC)展开合作，以确保他们得到所需信息。”

The Fed said that it had asked its inspector-general to carry out a preliminary review of the procedures it uses to distribute information.

美联储表示，已要求内部监察长初步审核该机构采用的信息发布流程。

Tom Digaloma, managing director at Navigate Advisors, told his clients to disregard the minutes. “Talk of tapering purchases was blown out of the water with Friday’s horrible jobs figure,” he said.

Navigate Advisors总经理汤姆•迪加洛玛(Tom Digaloma)建议自己的客户忽略此次会议纪要。他说：“鉴于上周五公布的糟糕就业数据，有关美联储将逐步收缩资产购买规模的说法已经无从谈起。”

However, there was an immediate reaction in the markets to the indication that the Fed had considered beginning the wind down of its bond purchases as early as the northern summer.

不过，对于美联储曾考虑最早从夏季开始削减债券购买规模的迹象，市场做出了即刻反应。

Treasuries extended a sell-off, sending the yield on 10-year government debt above 1.78 per cent, two basis points higher. The dollar strengthened, hitting session highs, including a four-year high against the yen.

美国国债延续抛售行情，推动10年期国债收益率超过1.78%，上涨2个基点。美元走强，触及当日高点，其中兑日元汇率达到4年来最高点。

The minutes also showed that the Fed was leaning towards a change in its “exit strategy” from easy monetary policy, under which it would hold mortgage-backed securities until they mature instead of selling them.

会议纪要还显示，美联储倾向于改变其宽松货币政策的“退出战略”。按照这一战略，美联储将持有抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)至到期，而不会出售这些证券。

FOMC participants said that holding MBS to maturity would help to keep the market functioning smoothly, reduce the risk of a sharp jump in yields that could harm financial stability, smooth out the Fed’s net income and – for dovish members – provide extra easing in monetary policy.

FOMC参与者表示，持有MBS到期将有助于保持市场平稳运转，降低收益率暴涨、损害金融稳定的风险，使美联储的净利润分布更为均匀，并且对于鸽派人士而言，还提供了额外的货币政策宽松。

Under QE3, the Fed is buying $85bn a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities in order to drive down long-term interest rates, but it will eventually have to sell those assets or let them mature in order to get its balance sheet back to a normal size.

按照第三轮量化宽松，美联储每月正在买入850亿美元美国国债以及MBS，以压低长期利率，但它最终必须出售这些资产，或者持有到期，使其资产负债表回归正常水平。