IMF下调2013年全球增长预期

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IMF下调2013年全球增长预期

天之聪教育 2013-04-18 天之聪教育 171次

IMF下调2013年全球增长预期

IMF sees 3-speed global growth

The International Monetary Fund has revised down its 2013 global growth forecast to reflect a three-speed world economy in which the eurozone is lagging behind.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)向下修订了2013年全球增长预期，以反映世界经济的“三速增长”局面。在三大板块中，欧元区的增长速度落在最后。

In its twice-yearly World Economic Outlook, the fund said emerging market and developing economies were still strong and the US was doing much better than the eurozone among advanced economies.

IMF在每年两次的《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook)中表示，新兴市场和发展中国家仍增长强劲，在发达经济体中，美国增长大幅领先于欧元区。

Highlighting the differential outlook, Olivier Blanchard, IMF chief economist, said: “The world economy is as weak as its weakest link. Given the strong interconnections between countries an uneven recovery is also a dangerous one. Some tail risks have decreased but it is not time for policy makers to relax.”

IMF首席经济学家奥利维尔•布兰查德(Olivier Blanchard)在强调三种不同前景时表示：“最薄弱环节有多么弱，世界经济增长就有多么弱。鉴于各国之间的紧密联系，不平衡的复苏也是危险的复苏。有些尾部风险已经减弱，但政策制定者还不到松口气的时候。”

The fund outlined high medium-term risks stemming from doubts about the eurozone’s ability to claw its way out of its crisis and the ability of the US and Japan to cut public sector deficits and debt.

IMF指出，较高的中期风险源自外界怀疑欧元区是否有能力让自己摆脱危机，以及美国和日本是否有能力降低公共部门赤字与债务。

However, it recognised that short-term perils had abated as markets warmed to the eurozone’s crisis management last year and the US political will to limit automatic and rapid fiscal tightening under sequestration.

但IMF认为，短期风险已减弱，因为对于去年欧元区的危机管理状况，对于美国限制强制减支方案下自动、快速财政紧缩的政治意志，市场都反响良好。

The IMF revised down its 2013 growth forecast 0.2 percentage points to 3.3 per cent but kept the 2014 forecast at 4 per cent.

IMF将2013年全球增长预期调降0.2个百分点，至3.3%，但维持2014年4%的增长预期不变。

The downgrades were almost entirely the result of bad figures for the end of last year and the fund was optimistic that a stronger recovery was in train. While the recovery would be bumpy, it said “global economic prospects have improved again [and] activity is expected to gradually accelerate, starting in the second half of 2013”.

调降2013年全球增长预期，几乎完全源于去年底糟糕的经济数据。IMF对世界经济复苏力度加强表示乐观。IMF表示，尽管复苏道路并不平坦，“但全球经济前景再度改善，且经济活动有望从2013年下半年起逐渐提速。”

The IMF expects the US to grow 1.9 per cent this year and 3 per cent next, while the eurozone will contract 0.3 per cent in 2013 and grow only 1.1 per cent in 2014.

IMF预计，美国今年增长1.9%，明年增长3%，而欧元区2013年收缩0.3%，2014年仅增长1.1%。

Emerging economies will lead the recovery, the IMF said. The annual rate of Chinese growth slowed to 7.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2013, but the fund expects the world’s second-largest economy to achieve 8 per cent growth in 2013 and 8.2 per cent in 2014, both better than 2012.

IMF表示，新兴经济体将领跑全球经济复苏。中国年增长率在2013年第一季度放慢至7.7%，但IMF预计，全球第二大经济体2013年增长率将达8%，2014年将达8.2%，均高于2012年。