The real deal
交易真相
Low real interest rates are usually bad news for equity markets
对股市而言，低利率通常是个坏消息
AS SAVERS know all too well, interest rates are low across the developed world. In many countries, they are negative in real (ie, after inflation) terms. In short, thrift is being punished.
手里有钱的人都十分清楚，发达国家的利率现全维持在低位。许多国家的实际利率(即扣除通胀影响)甚至为负数。总而言之，勤俭持家之人反而不利。
Low or negative real rates are usually the result of two things. Interest rates are the price of money, balancing the demand of citizens to save with business’s desire to invest. So a low real rate may simply be a sign that both consumers and businesses are feeling cautious.
通常两类因素会导致实际利率处于低位甚至负数。利率是货币的价格，保持着居民储蓄与商业投资需求之间的动态平衡。因此，较低的实际利率可能仅仅意味着消费者与生产者当下的态度均趋于谨慎。
But interest rates are also affected by the actions of the central bank—particularly so at present when the monetary authorities are intervening at both the short and long end of the yield curve. Central banks want rates to be low to encourage business investment, and to discourage consumer parsimony.
同时利率也会受到央行行为的影响——在货币当局同时干预长短期收益率曲线的当下，这一点又尤为明显。央行希望低利率能够刺激投资，并鼓励消费者松开捂紧的口袋。
In both cases, low rates are associated with a weak economy. If the economy is strong, businesses will be eager to expand and will compete for savers’ capital, bidding up rates. A strong economy would also create inflationary pressures as companies battle for workers and raw materials, pushing up wages and prices. In these circumstances central banks would be raising rates as a precaution.
这两类因素都说明低利率与经济走弱相关。若市场繁荣，渴望扩张的企业会争相竞争居民储蓄，抬高利率。同时企业对工人与原材料的争夺会促进工资与价格的上涨，形成通胀压力。作为预防，央行这时通常也会提高利率。
The implications of low rates for the stockmarket are therefore double-edged. Investors may well be encouraged to shift their money out of cash, and into equities. If share prices rise as a result, then the wealth effect will boost consumer confidence and the economy. But if low rates are an indication that future economic growth will be weak, then profits growth will be slow. That should discourage investors from buying shares.
因此，低利率对股市而言包含着双重意味。投资者可能愿意拿出更多的资金购买股票。若股价因此上涨，则财富效应会增强投资者信心，加快经济复苏。但如果低利率仅仅意味着未来经济仍将保持低位，利润增长乏力，那么这又会阻止人们购买更多股票。
So far in 2012 the stockmarket seems to have been caught between these two sentiments. At times it has become fretful about the economic outlook; on other occasions it has been buoyed by the prospect of easier monetary policy.
从今年股市的的表现来看，市场同时受到了这两种情绪的影响。时而会因经济前景堪忧而剧烈波动，时而又会因宽松的货币政策预期而浮动上涨。
Which factor should be more important in the long run? The Barclays Capital Equity-Gilt Study shows Treasury-bill yields and real US equity gains (or losses) dating back to 1926. So it is possible to test to see whether low real rates have been associated with good or bad times for shares.
那长期来看，哪种因素的影响更重要呢？巴克莱资本研究了1926年至今美国国债收益率与股市实际收益(或损失)之间的关系。从中或许能够看出低利率对股价的影响到底是好是坏。
The answer is pretty unequivocal. In the 33 years where real yields have been negative, the average gain from equities has been 2.3%; in the years when real yields were positive, the average gain was 6.2%.
得出的结论相当明确。在国债实际收益为负的33年间，股市的平均收益率为2.3%，而当收益率为正数时，股市的平均收益率为6.2%。
Another way of slicing up the data is to divide them into quintiles. In the lowest-yielding quintile (the years when real rates were most heavily negative), the market showed an average decline of 2.7% a year; in the highest-yielding, the market made an average gain of 7.4% (see chart). That is a ten-percentage-point spread in favour of a positive real-interest-rate environment.
另一种方法是将国债收益率从大到小分为五层。对于收益率最低的20%(其中多数年份的收益率均为较大的负数)，股市年平均缩水2.7%，而对于收益率最高的20%，股市平均增值7.4%（如图）。实际利率最高的分层大约要多出10%的股市收益率。
A third approach is to look at the best and worst years for the market, and examine the level of real rates at the time. The gaps are not as large but they are still suggestive. Between 1926 and 2011 the best years (the highest-returning quintile) for the stockmarket occurred when real rates averaged 1.2%; in the worst years, real rates averaged only 0.8%.
第三种方法是观察市场表现最好与最差的年份，并比对当时的实际利率。其差距并非天悬地隔，但也足够显著。1926年至2011年间，最好的年份(股市收益率最高的20%)的平均实际利率为1.2%，而最差的年份的平均实际利率则仅为0.8%。
Could this time be different? One possibility is that central banks are overestimating the scale of economic weakness, and keeping interest rates too low as a result. That might be good for corporate profits, but excessively loose monetary policy would also lead to higher inflation. So how are equity markets affected by inflation? In years when the annual inflation rate has been falling, the real return from American stocks has been 9.6%; in years when it has been rising, the real return has been minus 1.1%. So past experience suggests a sudden jump in inflation would not be great for the stockmarket.
这一次情况会有所不同吗？央行可能高估了经济的疲软程度，结果把利率水平维持得太低了。这或许会对企业利润有利，但过度宽松的货币政策也会导致更高的通胀压力。那通胀又会对股市产生何种影响呢？年均通胀率在处于下行通道时，股市年实际平均收益率为9.6%，而在处于上行通道时，实际平均收益率为-1.1%。因此过去的经验显示急剧升高的通胀水平对股市而言并非好事。
The other possibility is that central banks have not done enough: monetary policy is still too tight. In that case, the economy will be even weaker than is currently expected and profits will presumably be lower than forecast. It is hard to see how that scenario can be very bullish for equities either.
另一种可能是，央行做的还不够：货币政策仍显过紧。即经济可能比预期情况更糟，利润也可能会比推测值更低。这对股市来说也无利好消息可言。
Perhaps none of this would matter if the bad news was already reflected in share prices. The biggest bull markets have started when shares looked cheap. But on two crucial measures—the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (as calculated by Robert Shiller of Yale University) and the dividend yield—the American stockmarket looks more expensive than the historic average. Some people may think that low real rates will ignite an equity bull market. But history does not suggest that will be the case.
如果现在的股价已然反应了上述所有的坏消息，或许这些都已无关紧要。便宜的股价通常是大牛市的开端。但所谓的便宜有两大关键指标——(耶鲁大学的罗伯特•希勒教授发明的)周期调整市盈率以及股息率——按此两指标，美国股市的价格仍高于历史平均值。有人会认为较低的实际利率会引发牛市，但历史的结论却正好相反。
经济学家
2012-10-23
经济学家
852次
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