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双语对照:国新办上半年国民经济运行情况新闻发布会


来源:国新办    作者:天之聪教育   时间:2020-07-20 09:55   点击: 次  

国务院新闻办新闻局 寿小丽:

Shou Xiaoli:

女士们、先生们,大家上午好。欢迎出席国务院新闻办新闻发布会。今天我们邀请到国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长刘爱华女士,请她为大家介绍2020年上半年国民经济运行情况,并回答大家感兴趣的问题。

Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. Welcome to this press conference held by the State Council Information Office (SCIO). Today, we have invited Ms. Liu Aihua, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and director general of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics at the NBS. Ms. Liu will introduce China's economic performance in the first half of 2020, and answer your questions.

下面先请刘爱华女士作介绍。

First, let's give the floor to Ms. Liu Aihua.

刘爱华:

Liu Aihua:

统筹防疫和发展成效显著,上半年国民经济逐步复苏。上半年,面对新冠肺炎疫情带来的严峻考验和复杂多变的国内外环境,在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下,全国上下统筹推进疫情防控和经济社会发展各项工作,坚决贯彻落实各项决策部署,疫情防控形势持续向好,复工复产复商复市加快推进,上半年我国经济先降后升,二季度经济增长由负转正,主要指标恢复性增长,经济运行稳步复苏,基本民生保障有力,市场预期总体向好,社会发展大局稳定。

The coordinated efforts for epidemic control and economic development delivered notable results with the national economy gradually recovering in the first half of 2020. In the first half of 2020, faced with serious challenges posed by the COVID-19 outbreak and a complex and fast-changing environment both at home and abroad, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core, the whole nation coordinated efforts to advance both the prevention and control of the epidemic and socioeconomic development, and firmly implemented the decisions and arrangements made by the Central Committee and the State Council. Sustained improvements were made in epidemic prevention and control, and the resumption of work, production, business and market was advanced at an accelerated pace. As a result, the national economy shifted from slowing down to rising in the first half of 2020 with economic growth in the second quarter changing from negative to positive and main indicators showing restorative growth. The national economy recovered gradually, the basic livelihood was ensured effectively, market expectation was generally good, and the overall social development was stable.

初步核算,上半年国内生产总值456614亿元,按可比价格计算,同比下降1.6%。分季度看,一季度同比下降6.8%,二季度增长3.2%。分产业看,第一产业增加值26053亿元,同比增长0.9%;第二产业增加值172759亿元,下降1.9%;第三产业增加值257802亿元,下降1.6%。从环比看,二季度国内生产总值增长11.5%。

According to preliminary estimates, China's gross domestic product (GDP) was 45.66 trillion yuan in the first half of 2020, a year-on-year decline of 1.6% at comparable prices. The GDP for the first quarter declined by 6.8% year on year and that for the second quarter grew by 3.2%. The value added of the primary industry was 2.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 0.9%; that of the secondary industry was 17,28 trillion yuan, down by 1.9%; and that of the tertiary industry was 25.78 trillion yuan, down by 1.6%. The GDP in the second quarter grew by 11.5 % quarter on quarter.

一、农业生产形势较好,夏粮再获丰收

First, agricultural production was sound and bumper harvest of summer grain was continued.

上半年,农业(种植业)增加值同比增长3.8%,增速比一季度加快0.3个百分点;其中,二季度增长3.9%,比一季度加快0.4个百分点。全国夏粮总产量14281万吨,比上年增加121万吨,增长0.9%。农业种植结构持续优化,油菜籽等经济作物播种面积增加。上半年,牛奶产量同比增长7.9%,禽蛋产量增长7.1%。猪牛羊禽肉产量下降10.8%,降幅比一季度收窄8.7个百分点;其中,禽肉产量增长6.8%,增幅提高5.7个百分点;羊肉、牛肉、猪肉产量分别下降2.5%、3.4%、19.1%,降幅分别收窄5.2、3.0、10.0个百分点。生猪产能持续恢复。二季度末,生猪存栏33996万头,比一季度末增长5.8%;其中,能繁殖母猪存栏3629万头,同比增长5.4%,比一季度末增长7.3%。

In the first half of 2020, the value added by agriculture (crop farming) grew by 3.8% year on year, 0.3 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter; specifically, the figure grew by 3.9% in the second quarter, 0.4 percentage points higher than the growth in the first quarter. The overall output of summer grain was 142.81 million tons, an increase of 1.21 million tons over that of the previous year, up 0.9%. The structure of crop farming was further optimized, as areas sown with cash crops such as rapeseed increased. In the first half, the output of milk grew by 7.9% year on year and that of eggs grew by 7.1%. The output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry fell by 10.8%, the decrease of which narrowed by 8.7 percentage points compared with that of the first quarter. Specifically, the output of poultry increased by 6.8%, up 5.7 percentage points; that of mutton, beef and pork dropped by 2.5%, 3.4% and 19.1% respectively, the decrease of which narrowed by 5.2 percentage points, 3 percentage points and 10 percentage points respectively. The production capacity of pigs continued to recover. By the end of the second quarter, 339.96 million pigs were registered in stock, an increase of 5.8% over the end of the first quarter, among which 36.29 million were breeding sows, up by 5.4% year on year, an increase of 7.3% over the end of the first quarter. 

二、工业生产恢复较快,高技术制造业和装备制造业实现增长

Second, industrial production recovered quickly and high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing registered growth.

上半年,全国规模以上工业增加值同比下降1.3%,降幅比一季度收窄7.1个百分点;其中,二季度增长4.4%,一季度为下降8.4%。6月份,规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%,增速比5月份加快0.4个百分点,连续3个月增长;环比增长1.3%。上半年,分经济类型看,国有控股企业增加值同比下降1.5%;股份制企业下降0.8%,外商及港澳台商投资企业下降3.4%;私营企业下降0.1%。分三大门类看,采矿业增加值下降1.1%,制造业下降1.4%,电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业下降0.9%,降幅分别比一季度收窄0.6、8.8、4.3个百分点。上半年,高技术制造业和装备制造业增加值同比分别增长4.5%和0.4%;其中6月份分别增长10.0%和9.7%。部分工程机械类和新产品产量增长较快。上半年,挖掘、铲土运输机械,集成电路,工业机器人,载货汽车产量同比分别增长16.7%、16.4%、10.3%、8.4%。1-5月份,全国规模以上工业企业实现利润18435亿元,同比下降19.3%,降幅持续收窄;其中,5月份利润总额由4月份同比下降4.3%转为增长6.0%。6月份,中国制造业采购经理指数为50.9%,比5月份上升0.3个百分点,连续4个月位于临界点之上。

In the first half of the year, the total value added by industrial enterprises above designated size declined by 1.3% year on year, 7.1 percentage points slower than the decline of the first quarter; specifically, the figure grew by 4.4% in the second quarter and declined by 8.4% in the first quarter. In June, the total value added by industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 4.8% year on year, 0.4 percentage points faster than that of May, growing for the third month in a row, or up by 1.3% month on month. An analysis by types of ownership showed that the value added by state holding enterprises decreased by 1.5% year on year; that of share-holding enterprises decreased by 0.8%; enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan decreased by 3.4%; and private enterprises decreased by 0.1%. In terms of sectors, the value added from mining went down by 1.1%, from manufacturing down by 1.4%, and the production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water declined by 0.9%, 0.6 percentage points, 8.8 percentage points and 4.3 percentage points slower than the decline of the first quarter respectively. The value added by high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing grew by 4.5% and 0.4% respectively in the first half; specifically, the figures went up by 10% and 9.7% respectively in June. The output of some engineering machinery and new products witnessed fast growth. In the first half of the year, the production of excavators and shoveling machinery, integrated circuits, industrial robots and trucks grew by 16.7%, 16.4%, 10.3% and 8.4% year on year, respectively. In the first five months of 2020, the total profits from industrial enterprises above designated size totaled 1.84 trillion yuan, down by 19.3 percent year on year, the decline of which continued to narrow. Specifically, the figure went up by 6% year on year in May, while that in April decreased by 4.3%. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index stood at 50.9% in June, 0.3 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, staying above the threshold for the fourth consecutive month.

三、服务业降幅缩小,现代服务业增势良好

Third, the decline of service sector narrowed and modern service industries demonstrated favorable momentum. 

上半年,第三产业增加值同比下降,降幅比一季度收窄3.6个百分点;其中,二季度增长1.9%,一季度为下降5.2%。分行业看,上半年信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业,金融业增加值分别增长14.5%、6.6%;批发和零售业、住宿和餐饮业分别下降8.1%、26.8%,降幅比一季度分别收窄9.7、8.5个百分点。上半年,全国服务业生产指数同比下降6.1%,降幅比一季度收窄5.6个百分点;其中,6月份增长2.3%,比5月份加快1.3个百分点。1-5月份,规模以上服务业企业营业收入同比下降6.4%,降幅比1-4月份收窄2.2个百分点;其中,信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业增长8.4%。6月份,服务业商务活动指数为53.4%,比5月份上升1.1个百分点。其中,铁路运输业、道路运输业、航空运输业、邮政业、电信广播电视卫星传输服务、互联网软件信息服务、货币金融服务、资本市场服务、保险业等行业商务活动指数位于55.0%及以上。从市场预期看,服务业业务活动预期指数为59.0%。

In the first half of the year, the total value added by the tertiary industry dropped year on year, 3.6 percentage points less than the decline of the first quarter; specifically, the figure grew by 1.9% in the second quarter and dropped by 5.2% in the first quarter. By sectors, the value added by information transmission, software and information technology and that of financial services grew by 14.5% and 6.6% respectively; wholesale and retail trades, accommodation and catering declined by 8.1% and 26.8% respectively, 9.7 percentage points and 8.5 percentage points slower than the decline in the first quarter. In the first half of 2020, the Index of Services Production decreased by 6.1% year on year, 5.6 percentage points slower than the decline of the first quarter; specifically, the figure in June grew by 2.3%, 1.3 percentage points higher than that in May. In the first five months, business revenue of service enterprises above designated size dropped by 6.4%, the decline of which narrowed by 2.2 percentage points compared with that in the first four months; specifically, that of information transmission, software and information technology services grew by 8.4%. In June, the Business Activity Index for services was 53.4%, 1.1 percentage points higher than that in May. Specifically, the Business Activity Index for railway transportation, road transportation, air transportation, postal services, telecommunication, broadcasting, television satellite transmission services, internet, software and information services, monetary and financial services, capital market services and insurance stood at 55% and above. In terms of market expectation, the Business Activity Expectation Index for services was 59%.

四、市场销售逐步改善,网上零售较快增长

Fourth, market sales gradually improved and online retail sales grew fast.

上半年,社会消费品零售总额172256亿元,同比下降11.4%,降幅比一季度收窄7.6个百分点;其中二季度下降3.9%,比一季度收窄15.1个百分点。6月份,社会消费品零售总额33526亿元,同比下降1.8%,降幅比5月份收窄1.0个百分点;环比增长1.34%。上半年,按经营单位所在地分,城镇消费品零售额149345亿元,下降11.5%;乡村消费品零售额22911亿元,下降10.9%;按消费类型分,餐饮收入14609亿元,下降32.8%;商品零售157648亿元,下降8.7%。基本生活用品和医疗用品较快增长,上半年,限额以上单位粮油食品类、饮料类和中西药品类商品零售额分别增长12.9%、10.5%、5.8%,比一季度分别加快0.3、6.4、2.9个百分点。升级类商品销售较快增长,限额以上单位体育娱乐用品类、通讯器材类商品零售额分别增长6.1%和5.8%,一季度分别为下降5.1%和3.6%。全国网上零售额51501亿元,同比增长7.3%,一季度为下降0.8%。其中,实物商品网上零售额43481亿元,增长14.3%,比一季度加快8.4个百分点;占社会消费品零售总额的比重为25.2%,比一季度提高1.6个百分点。

In the first half of 2020, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 17.23 trillion yuan, down by 11.4% year on year, or 7.6 percentage points slower than the decline in the first quarter; specifically, the figure decreased by 3.9% in the second quarter, the decline of which narrowed by 15.1 percentage points compared with that in the first quarter. In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.35 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.8%, 1 percentage point slower than the decline in May, or a month-on-month growth of 1.34%. In the first half, analyzed by different areas, retail sales in urban areas reached 14.93 trillion yuan, down by 11.5%, and retail sales in rural areas stood at 2.29 trillion yuan, down by 10.9%. Grouped by consumption patterns, the income of catering was 1.46 trillion yuan, down by 32.8%; and the retail sales of goods were 15.76 trillion yuan, down by 8.7%. The retail sales of goods for basic living and medical supplies grew quickly. The sale of grain, oil and food, beverages and traditional Chinese and Western medicines by businesses above designated size grew by 12.9%, 10.5% and 5.8% respectively, 0.3 percentage points, 6.4 percentage points and 2.9 percentage points higher than the growth in the first quarter. Upgraded consumer goods grew fast. The retail sales of sports and recreational items and that of telecommunication equipment by businesses above designated size grew by 6.1% and 5.8% respectively, despite a decline of 5.1% and 3.6% in the first quarter. Online retail sales reached 5.15 trillion yuan, growing by 7.3% year on year, while that fell by 0.8% in the first quarter. Specifically, the online retail sales of physical goods was 4.35 trillion yuan, up by 14.3%, 8.4 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter, accounting for 25.2% of the total retail sales of consumer goods, or 1.6 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter.

五、固定资产投资降幅明显收窄,高技术产业和社会领域投资回升

Fifth, the decline of investment in fixed assets narrowed remarkably and the investment in high-tech industries and the social sector picked up.

上半年,全国固定资产投资(不含农户)281603亿元,同比下降3.1%,降幅比1-5月份收窄3.2个百分点,比一季度收窄13.0个百分点。分领域看,基础设施投资下降2.7%,制造业投资下降11.7%,降幅比一季度分别收窄17.0、13.5个百分点;房地产开发投资增长1.9%,一季度为下降7.7%。全国商品房销售面积69404万平方米,下降8.4%;商品房销售额66895亿元,下降5.4%,降幅比一季度分别收窄17.9、19.3个百分点。分产业看,第一产业投资增长3.8%,一季度为下降13.8%;第二产业投资下降8.3%,第三产业投资下降1.0%,降幅比一季度分别收窄13.6、12.5个百分点。民间投资157867亿元,下降7.3%,降幅比一季度收窄11.5个百分点。高技术产业投资增长6.3%,一季度为下降12.1%;其中高技术制造业和高技术服务业投资分别增长5.8%和7.2%。高技术制造业中,医药制造业、计算机及办公设备制造业投资分别增长13.6%、8.2%;高技术服务业中,电子商务服务业、科技成果转化服务业投资分别增长32.0%、21.8%。社会领域投资增长5.3%,一季度为下降8.8%;其中卫生、教育投资分别增长15.2%、10.8%,一季度为分别下降0.9%、4.0%。从环比看,6月份固定资产投资(不含农户)比上月增长5.91%。

In the first half of the year, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) reached 28.16 trillion yuan, down by 3.1% year on year, the decline of which narrowed by 3.2 percentage points compared with that in the first five months, or 13 percentage points compared with that in the first quarter. Specifically, the investment in infrastructure was down by 2.7% and that in manufacturing down by 11.7%, the decline of which narrowed by 17 percentage points and 13.5 percentage points respectively compared with that in the first quarter; real estate development went up by 1.9% and down by 7.7% in the first quarter. The floor space of commercial buildings sold reached 694.04 million square meters, down by 8.4%, and the total sales of commercial buildings were 6.69 trillion yuan, down by 5.4%, 17.9 percentage points and 19.3 percentage points slower than the decline in the first quarter respectively. By industries, the investment in the primary industry grew by 3.8% despite a decline of 13.8% in the first quarter; that in the secondary industry went down by 8.3% and that in the tertiary industry down by 1%, 13.6 percentage points and 12.5 percentage points less than the decline in the first quarter respectively. Private investment reached 15.79 trillion yuan, down by 7.3%, 11.5 percentage points slower than the decline in the first quarter. The investment in high-tech industries went up by 6.3%, while that in the first quarter went down by 12.1%; specifically, the investment in high-tech manufacturing industries and high-tech services went up by 5.8% and 7.2% respectively. In terms of high-tech manufacturing, the investment in pharmaceutical manufacturing and the manufacturing of computers and office devices grew by 13.6% and 8.2% respectively. In terms of high-tech services, the investment in services for e-commerce services and commercialization of scientific and technological research findings grew by 32% and 21.8% respectively. Investment in the social sector increased by 5.3%, while declining by 8.8% in the first quarter. Specifically, investment in the health sector and education sector grew by 15.2% and 10.8% respectively, despite a decline of 0.9% and 4% in the first quarter. In June, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) grew by 5.91% month on month. 

六、货物进出口好于预期,贸易结构继续改善

Sixth, imports and exports exceeded expectation and the trade structure continued to be optimized.

上半年,货物进出口总额142379亿元,同比下降3.2%,降幅比一季度收窄3.3个百分点;其中,二季度同比下降0.2%,一季度为下降6.5%。出口77134亿元,下降3.0%;进口65245亿元,下降3.3%;进出口相抵,贸易顺差11889亿元。贸易结构继续优化。上半年,一般贸易进出口占进出口总额的比重为60.1%,比上年同期提高0.4个百分点。机电产品出口占出口总额的比重为58.6%,比上年同期提高0.5个百分点。6月份,进出口总额26973亿元,同比增长5.1%;出口15131亿元,增长4.3%;进口11842亿元,增长6.2%。上半年,全国规模以上工业企业实现出口交货值54250亿元,同比下降4.9%,降幅比一季度收窄5.4个百分点;其中,6月份实现出口交货值由5月份同比下降1.4%转为增长2.6%。

In the first half of the year, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 14.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.2%, 3.3 percentage points slower than the decline in the first quarter; specifically, that in the second quarter dropped by 0.2%, and that in the first quarter dropped by 6.5%. The total value of exports was 7.71 trillion yuan, down by 3%; the total value of imports was 6.52 trillion yuan, down by 3.3%. The trade balance was 1.19 trillion yuan in surplus. The trade structure continued to be optimized. In the first half, the import and export of general trade accounted for 60.1% of the total value of the imports and exports, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared with that in the same period last year. The exports of mechanical and electronic products accounted for 58.6% of the total value of exports, an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared with the same period last year. In June, the total value of imports and exports was 2.70 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%. The total value of exports was 1.51 trillion yuan, up by 4.3%, and the total value of imports was 1.18 trillion yuan, up by 6.2%. In the first half, the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above the designated size reached 5.43 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.9%, 5.4 percentage points slower than the decline in the first quarter. In June, the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above the designated size shifted from a year-on-year decline of 1.4% in May to a growth of 2.6%.

七、居民消费价格涨势温和,工业生产者出厂价格同比下降

Seventh, consumer prices rose slightly and producer prices for industrial products declined year on year. 

上半年,全国居民消费价格同比上涨3.8%,涨幅比一季度回落1.1个百分点。其中,城市上涨3.6%,农村上涨4.7%。分类别看,食品烟酒价格同比上涨12.2%,衣着下降0.1%,居住下降0.1%,生活用品及服务上涨0.1%,交通和通信下降3.2%,教育文化和娱乐上涨2.0%,医疗保健上涨2.1%,其他用品和服务上涨5.0%。在食品烟酒价格中,粮食上涨1.0%,鲜菜上涨3.4%;猪肉价格上涨104.3%,比一季度回落18.2个百分点。扣除食品和能源价格后的核心CPI上涨1.2%。6月份,全国居民消费价格同比上涨2.5%,环比下降0.1%。

In the first half of the year, the consumer price increased by 3.8% year on year, 1.1 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter. Specifically, the price went up by 3.6% in urban areas and up by 4.7% in rural areas. Grouped by commodity categories, prices for food, tobacco and alcohol went up by 12.2% year on year; clothing down by 0.1%; housing down by 0.1%; articles and services for daily use up by 0.1%; transportation and communication down by 3.2%; education, culture and recreation up by 2%; medical services and health care up by 2.1%; and other articles and services up by 5%. In terms of food, tobacco and alcohol prices, prices for grain increased by 1%, fresh vegetables up by 3.4%; and pork up by 104.3%, 18.2 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter. Core CPI excluding the price of food and energy went up by 1.2%. In June, the consumer price went up by 2.5% year on year, and down by 0.1% month on month.  

上半年,全国工业生产者出厂价格同比下降1.9%;其中6月份同比下降3.0%,环比上涨0.4%。上半年,全国工业生产者购进价格同比下降2.6%;其中6月份同比下降4.4%,环比增长0.4%。

In the first half of the year, the producer prices for industrial products decreased by 1.9% year on year. The figure in June dropped by 3% year on year, or up by 0.4% month on month. In the first half, the purchasing prices for industrial producers decreased by 2.6% year on year. The figure in June dropped by 4.4% year on year and up by 0.4% month on month. 

八、全国城镇调查失业率有所下降,就业形势总体稳定

Eighth, the urban surveyed unemployment rate declined slightly and employment was generally stable. 

上半年,全国城镇新增就业人员564万人,完成全年目标任务的62.7%。6月份,全国城镇调查失业率为5.7%,比5月份下降0.2个百分点;其中25-59岁群体人口调查失业率为5.2%,低于全国城镇调查失业率0.5个百分点,比5月份下降0.2个百分点。31个大城市城镇调查失业率为5.8%,比5月份下降0.1个百分点。全国企业就业人员周平均工作时间为46.8小时。二季度末,农村外出务工劳动力总量17752万人。

In the first half, the newly increased employed people in urban areas totaled 5.64 million, accounting for 62.7% of the whole-year target. In June, the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.7%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that in May. Specifically, the surveyed unemployment rate of population aged 25-59 was 5.2%, 0.5 percentage points lower than that of the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas, or 0.2 percentage points lower than that in May. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.8%, 0.1 percentage points lower than that in the previous month. The employees of enterprises worked an average of 46.8 hours per week. By the end of the second quarter, the number of rural migrant workers reached 177.52 million.

九、居民实际收入降幅收窄,城乡居民人均可支配收入比值缩小

Ninth, the decline of residents' real income narrowed and urban-rural per capita disposable income ratio dropped. 

上半年,全国居民人均可支配收入15666元,同比名义增长2.4%,增速比一季度加快1.6个百分点;扣除价格因素实际下降1.3%,降幅收窄2.6个百分点。按常住地分,城镇居民人均可支配收入21655元,名义增长1.5%,实际下降2.0%;农村居民人均可支配收入8069元,名义增长3.7%,实际下降1.0%。从收入来源看,全国居民人均工资性收入同比名义增长2.5%,经营净收入下降5.1%,财产净收入增长4.2%,转移净收入增长8.2%。城乡居民人均收入比值2.68,比上年同期缩小0.06。全国居民人均可支配收入中位数13347元,同比名义增长0.5%。

In the first half of the year, the nationwide per capita disposable income of residents was 15,666 yuan, a nominal growth of 2.4% year on year, 1.6 percentage points faster than that in the first quarter, or a real decrease of 1.3% after deducting price factors, a decrease of which narrowed by 2.6 percentage points. In terms of permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban households was 21,655 yuan, a nominal growth of 1.5%, or a real decrease of 2%. The per capita disposable income of rural households was 8,069 yuan, a nominal growth of 3.7%, or a real decrease of 1%. By sources of income, the nationwide per capita wage income went up by 2.5% in nominal terms, net operating income down by 5.1%, net property income up by 4.2%, and net transfer income up by 8.2%. The per capita disposable income of urban households was 2.68 times that of the rural households, 0.06 less than that of the same period last year. The median of the nationwide per capita disposable income was 13,347 yuan, a nominal increase of 0.5% year on year. 

总的来看,上半年我国经济逐步克服疫情带来的不利影响,经济运行呈恢复性增长和稳步复苏态势,发展韧性和活力进一步彰显。同时也要看到,一些指标仍在下降,疫情冲击损失尚需弥补。当前全球疫情依然在蔓延扩散,疫情对世界经济的巨大冲击将继续发展演变,外部风险挑战明显增多,国内经济恢复仍面临压力。下一步,要坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导,把统筹推进常态化疫情防控和经济社会发展工作贯通起来,坚持目标引领和问题导向,积势蓄势谋势,识变求变应变,抓重点、补短板、强弱项,扎实做好“六稳”工作,全面落实“六保”任务,确保各项决策部署落地生根,坚决打赢脱贫攻坚战,努力完成全面建成小康社会目标任务,推动我国经济行稳致远。

Generally speaking, the national economy gradually overcame the adverse impact of the epidemic in the first half of the year and demonstrated a momentum of restorative growth and gradual recovery, further manifesting its development resilience and vitality. However, we should also be aware that some indicators are still in decline and the losses caused by the epidemic need to be recovered. Given the continuous spread of the pandemic globally, the evolving huge impact of the epidemic on the global economy and the noticeably mounting external risks and challenges, the national economic recovery is still under pressure. Next, we should take Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era as the guideline, coordinate efforts to advance routine epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, stay goal-guided and problem-oriented, gather strength and strategize moves, recognize, seek and respond to changes, focus on key areas, address inadequacies and shore up weaknesses. We must make solid efforts to stabilize employment, finance, foreign trade, foreign investment, domestic investment, and market expectations, comprehensively implement the tasks to safeguard residential employment, people's livelihood, market entities, food and energy security, stability of industrial and supply chains and operations at grassroots levels, and ensure the implementation of decisions and arrangements so as to win the battle against poverty, achieve the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all aspects and promote the long-term and stable growth of the economy.

寿小丽:

Shou Xiaoli:

下面开始提问,提问前请先通报所在的新闻机构。

Now the floor is open for questions. Please identify your news outlet before asking questions.

中央广播电视总台央视记者:

CCTV:

今年二季度经济明显好转,您怎么评价上半年经济运行的表现?谢谢。

The economy has improved significantly in the second quarter. How would you evaluate the overall performance in the first half? Thank you.

刘爱华:

Liu Aihua:

感谢你的提问。从刚才介绍的数据来看,今年以来,突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情带来的冲击前所未有,世界经济陷入二战以来的最为严重的衰退,今年上半年面对严峻风险挑战,全国上下统筹推进疫情防控和经济社会发展工作,在一系列政策作用下,中国经济运行先降后升、稳步复苏。上半年经济运行特点主要体现在五个方面:

Thank you for your question. According to the data presented in the initial briefing, since the beginning of this year, the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak is unprecedented, plunging the world economy into its worst recession since World War II. In the first half, facing severe risks and challenges, the entire nation coordinated its efforts to advance both prevention and control of the epidemic and continue to promote economic and social development. With the implementation of a series of policies, China's economy shifted from slowdown to gradual recovery. The characteristics of economic performance in the first half are mainly reflected in following five aspects:

第一,主要指标逐步回升。从季度看,二季度国内生产总值同比增长3.2%,由一季度下降6.8%转负为正;规模以上工业增加值由一季度下降8.4%转为增长4.4%;服务业增加值由一季度下降5.2%转为增长1.9%;二季度社会消费品零售总额降幅比一季度收窄15.1个百分点;上半年固定资产投资降幅比一季度收窄13.0个百分点。所以,从季度看指标是明显改善。从月度看,规模以上工业增加值连续三个月保持正增长,服务业生产指数连续两个月正增长,社会消费品零售总额连续四个月降幅收窄,出口额连续三个月正增长。作为一个拥有14亿人口的发展中大国,我国能够在短时间有效控制疫情,实现经济由降转升,保持经济社会大局稳定,殊为不易,这凸显了中国经济的强大韧性和潜力,同时也体现了党中央、国务院综合施策的效果。

First, the main indicators showed restored growth. GDP for the first quarter declined by 6.8% year-on-year, while the second quarter saw growth of 3.2%; The total added value of industrial enterprises above designated size declined by 8.4% in the first quarter, but then grew by 4.4% in the second quarter; The total added value of tertiary industry fell by 5.2% in the first quarter, yet then grew by 1.9% in the second quarter; The decline of total retail sales of consumer goods narrowed by 15.1 percentage points in the second quarter compared to the first quarter; The decline of investment in fixed assets narrowed by 13 percentage points from the first to the second quarters. Therefore, the quarterly indicators showed the economy has obviously improved. Looking at the monthly figures, the total added value of industrial enterprises above designated size grew for three consecutive months. The Index of Services Production increased for two consecutive months. The decline of the total retail sales of consumer goods narrowed for four consecutive months. The total value of exports increased for the third straight month. It is by no means easy for China, a large developing country with a population of 1.4 billion, to effectively control the epidemic in a short period of time and ensure its economy can be shifted from slowdown to a rise. China has made it, which shows the strong resilience and potential of the national economy and reflects the effect of the policies issued by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council in a holistic way.

第二,就业物价总体平稳。6月份全国城镇调查失业率为5.7%,连续两个月小幅下降,其中25-59岁群体人口调查失业率为5.2%,比全国城镇调查失业率低0.5个百分点。6月份,全国企业就业人员周平均工作时间为46.8小时,比上个月上升0.7小时。居民消费价格涨幅呈现趋势回落,上半年,居民消费价格同比上涨3.8%,涨幅比一季度回落1.1个百分点;核心CPI同比上涨1.2%,基本保持稳定。6月份,居民消费价格上涨2.5%,处于温和上涨区间。

Second, employment levels and consumer prices are generally stable. In June, the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.7%, a slight decrease for the second straight month. Specifically, the surveyed unemployment rate of population aged from 25 to 59 was 5.2%, 0.5 percentage points lower than the overall urban rate. In June, enterprise employees worked on average 46.8 hours per week, up by 0.7 hours from the previous month. The increase of consumer prices showed a downward trend. In the first half-year, consumer price went up by 3.8% year-on-year, 1.1 percentage points lower than the first quarter figure; the core CPI rose 1.2% year-on-year, achieving basic stability. In June, consumer prices rose by 2.5%, within the range of a moderate rise.

第三,基本民生保障有力。脱贫攻坚成效突出,上半年贫困人口较多的四川、贵州、广西等地,农村居民人均可支配收入同比名义增长都在5.5%-7.6%之间。社会保障和兜底帮扶持续加强,上半年人均转移性收入名义增长8.2%,其中人均养老金和离退休金增长9.3%,人均社会救济收入和补助收入增长13.2%。居民基本生活消费保持了较快增长,上半年限额以上单位商品零售中,粮油食品类同比增长12.9%,日用品增长5.2%。

Third, basic livelihood was ensured effectively. The poverty alleviation drive has achieved outstanding results. In the first half of the year, in places with a large number of poor people such as Sichuan, Guizhou, and Guangxi, the nominal annual growth of per capita disposable income of rural resident was between 5.5% and 7.6%. We continued to strengthen social security and assist those most in need. In the first half of the year, the nominal growth of per capita transfer income reached 8.2%, of which per capita old-age pension and retirement pensions increased by 9.3%, and social assistant grants and subsidies per capita increased by 13.2%. Basic living consumption of residents maintains rapid growth. In terms of the retail sales of goods above designated size in the first half of the year, grain, oil and food grew by 12.9% year-on-year and daily necessities increased by 5.2%.

第四,新兴领域动能增强。上半年,高技术制造业增加值同比增长4.5%,占规模以上工业增加值的比重为14.7%,比上年同期提高0.9个百分点。高技术领域投入持续加大,上半年高技术制造业投资同比增长5.8%,高技术服务业投资同比6.3%,其中医药行业投资增长10%以上,电子商务服务业投资增长30%以上。新基建等相关产品增长比较快,上半年城市轨道车辆增长13%,充电桩产量增长11.9%。上半年实物商品网上零售额同比增长14.3%,占社会消费品零售总额的比重为25.2%,比上年同期提高5.6个百分点。

Fourth, new growth drivers have become stronger in various emerging fields. In the first half, the added value of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing grew by 4.5% year-on-year, accounting for 14.7% of the added value of industries above designated size, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the same period last year. Investment in the high-tech sector continued to increase. In the first half, investment in high-tech manufacturing industries and high-tech services went up by 5.8% and 7.2% year-on-year respectively. Investment in the pharmaceutical industry increased by over 10%, and the e-commerce service industry achieved a gain of over 30%. New infrastructure and other related products grew relatively fast. In the first half, urban rail vehicles in service increased by 13%, and the output of charging piles increased by 11.9%. In the first half, online retail sales of physical goods increased by 14.3% year-on-year, accounting for 25.2% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods, up by 5.6 percentage points from the same period last year.

第五,市场预期总体向好。6月份中国制造业采购经理指数为50.9%,连续四个月位于临界点以上,非制造业商务活动指数是54.4%,连续四个月回升。

Fifth, market expectation was generally good. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index stood at 50.9% in June, staying above the threshold for the fourth consecutive month. The Business Activity Index for the non-manufacturing sector was 54.4%, achieving a rise for the fourth straight month. 

总体上,从上面五个特点可以看出,今年上半年中国经济逐步克服了疫情冲击带来的不利影响,实现了逐步复苏。但同时也要看到,由于上半年GDP、工业、服务业、消费、投资等主要指标仍处于下降区域,所以说二季度的回升增长仍然属于恢复性的增长。疫情冲击的损失尚未完全弥补,推动经济回归正常水平还需要付出艰苦努力。

In general, judging from these five characteristics, it can be seen that China's economy overcame the adverse impact of the epidemic in the first half of the year and rebounded gradually. However, we should also be aware that some indicators in the first half, including GDP, industry, service industry, consumption, and investment, are still in decline. Therefore, growth in the second quarter is just a matter of restorative growth. The losses caused by the epidemic still need to be recovered and there is much work to be done to get the economy back to normal.

CNBC记者:

CNBC:

有两个问题。第一,关于消费,有没有一线城市的消费情况介绍一下。第二,关于疫情在全球蔓延,对三季度、四季度经济增速会有什么样的影响?

I have two questions. First, please introduce the consumption situation in first-tier cities. Second, what impact will the pandemic have on economic growth in the third and fourth quarters?

刘爱华:

Liu Aihua:

谢谢你的提问。我先回答第二个问题,你关注经济增长的走势,也就是预计三、四季度会怎么样。

Thanks for your questions. Let me answer the second question first, which is about the trend of economic growth in the third and fourth quarters. 

从上半年尤其是二季度各个经济指标回升情况看,下半年经济的持续恢复是有支撑的。

The recovery of economic indicators in the first half of the year, especially in the second quarter, shows that the economy's sustained recovery in the second half of the year has foundations. 

第一,上半年经济稳步复苏为下半年持续恢复打下了坚实的基础。很多指标在3月份以来都出现了明显回升或者降幅收窄,这种运行态势表明,总体上疫情的冲击是可控的,而且中国经济自我调整能力是比较强的。我国拥有完善的产业体系、日益完善的基础设施、超大的市场优势,这些优势在下阶段仍然会有效应对疫情冲击。

First, the stable economic recovery in the first half of the year has laid a solid foundation for a sustained recovery in the second half of the year. Since March, many indicators have seen significant gains or narrower declines, which indicates that the impact of the pandemic is generally controllable, and the Chinese economy has a strong capacity for self-adjustment. Our country has a perfect industrial system, increasingly sophisticated infrastructure and the advantages of a super large market, which will continue to help respond effectively to the impact of the pandemic in the next stage.

第二,疫情期间催生了很多新产业新业态新模式,将为经济回升继续提供有力支撑。今年上半年疫情期间,我们看到,远程办公、在线教育、智能施工、无人配送这些新模式有效地化解了现实生活中的一些堵点、难点,云计算、大数据、人工智能为代表的新技术快速发展,数字经济、智能制造、生命健康这些新产业形成了更多增长极,这些增长极将为经济下一阶段增长提供更多支撑。

Second, during the pandemic, many new industries, business forms and business models have been created, which will continue to provide strong support for the economic recovery. During the first half of the year, we noticed that new business models, such as working from home, online education, intelligent construction, and driverless delivery, have efficiently resolved some problems in our lives. New technologies, such as cloud computing, big data and artificial intelligence, are developing rapidly. New industries, such as the digital economy, smart manufacturing and life and health, have become new growth poles, which will provide more support for economic growth in the next phase. 

第三,宏观政策效应将进一步显现。上半年,为应对疫情冲击,我国采取了财税方面的支持、金融方面的支持以及全面强化就业优先政策,这些政策目前已经见到成效。这为下半年更好地应对疫情冲击积累了经验,同时进一步坚定了我们的信心。同时,疫情冲击下也暴露出一些领域的问题,也促使我们进一步的补短板、强弱项,进一步加大创新力度,增强经济发展的后劲和活力。

Third, the effect of macro policies will further pay off. During the first half of this year, to deal with the pandemic's impact, our country has provided fiscal and taxation support, financial support and comprehensively strengthened the policy of giving top priority to employment. All these policies have paid off so far, which provided experience for better responding to the outbreak's impact in the second half of the year and further strengthened our confidence. Meanwhile, the epidemic has exposed some problems, which prompted us to further address problems and reinforce weak links. We will step up innovation to strengthen the basis for sustained growth and vitality of the economy. 

从这些有利条件看,我们对下半年经济持续复苏是有信心的。同时,经济回升也是有基础、有潜力、有条件实现的。但也必须强调,当前境外疫情仍在快速的蔓延扩散,世界经济经贸重启举步维艰,国内的需求恢复目前受到一定的制约,稳企业、保就业压力还是比较大。所以,还是要坚持底线思维,充分认识疫情影响的广泛性、复杂性、持续性,围绕做好“六稳”工作,落实“六保”任务,狠抓政策落实,努力完成全年经济社会发展的目标任务。

Given these favorable conditions, we are confident of a sustained economic recovery in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, economic recovery has its foundations, potential and conditions to be realized. However, it must also be emphasized that the rapid spread of the pandemic in other countries has made it difficult for the world economy and trade to recover. The recovery of domestic demand is constrained to some extent, and there is still considerable pressure to keep businesses and employment stable. So we must think about worst-case scenarios, fully understand the breadth, complexity and persistence of the impact of the outbreak, focus on ensuring the six priorities of employment, people's livelihoods, development of market entities, food and energy security, stable operation of industrial and supply chains, and smooth functioning at the community level, and ensuring stability in the six areas of employment, finance, foreign trade, foreign investment, domestic investment, and market expectations. We should pay close attention to the implementation of policies and work hard to fulfill the goals of economic and social development set for the year. 

您刚才第一个问题,关于一线城市的消费。我们目前需要根据你的提问,作出新的统计分组,对一线城市都要重新作出界定,今天发布会之后可以和我们新闻处联系,我们把数据给您作进一步的加工。谢谢。

Your first question is about consumption in first-tier cities. We need to make a new statistical grouping based on your question and redefine the first-tier cities. You can contact the information office of the NBS after the press conference, and we will reorganize the statistics. Thank you. 

国际市场新闻社记者:

Market News International:

刚才说下半年中国经济有望持续反弹,如果这样,前期采取的一些应急政策,如扩张性的财政和货币刺激政策,下半年是否会放缓或者退出来?上半年,房地产投资增长很强劲,对经济恢复支撑很明显。下半年房地产投资是否会持续强势?6月份社会零售数字还是负增长,您觉得现在内需是不是明显不足?会出什么样的政策刺激内需?

As the speaker said just now, China's economic rebound is expected to continue in the second half of 2020. If so, will the emergency policies adopted in the first half, such as expansionary fiscal and monetary stimuli, be slowed down or phased out? In H1, China's real estate investment registered robust growth, providing considerable support for economic recovery. Will real estate investment remain strong in H2? The total retail sales of consumer goods still suffered a year-on-year decline in June. Do you think China's domestic demand is now obviously weak? What policies will be taken to boost domestic demand?

刘爱华:

Liu Aihua:

谢谢你的提问。首先第一个问题,上半年推出的系列政策是不是会进行调整?首先要正确认识当前经济形势。二季度出现了明显回升,从上半年来看,多数指标处于回升改善或者降幅收窄的态势。但同时也要看到,从上半年累计的速度看,GDP、工业、服务业、投资、消费等领域大部分指标处于下降区间。所以说,我们对目前经济回升的判断,认为是恢复性的增长。至于下半年的政策会怎样进行调整,《政府工作报告》已经作出明确安排。当前,宏观政策既要考虑保持政策力度,也要考虑可持续性,未来还要根据实际情况进行调整。也就是说,目前的政策是保持一定灵活性的,下半年会根据形势发展,根据“六稳”的实现情况和“六保”任务落实情况作出适度调整。

Thank you for your questions. The first question is whether the policies introduced in H1 will be adjusted. We need to have a correct understanding of the current economic situation. China's economy showed a significant recovery in the second quarter. Most economic indicators improved or declined at a slower pace in H1. Meanwhile, we also need to be aware that, judging from the cumulative speed seen in H1, GDP and most other indicators in such areas as industry, service, investment and consumption are still in a state of decline. Therefore, we define the current economic recovery only as restorative growth. As for policy adjustment in H2, the Government Work Report has made specific plans. Macro policies should be both forceful and sustainable, and they may be adjusted as called for. In other words, the polices we've adopted are flexible, and they will be moderately adjusted according to future developments in H2, as well as the implementation of measures to ensure stability on six fronts and maintain security in six areas.

第二个问题,房地产投资目前的状况和下半年的走势。上半年房地产投资已经转正,增长1.9%,但同时也要看到更多的房地产市场指标,如房屋新开工面积、土地购置面积、一些商品房销售指标,目前看还处于下降区间。所以对下半年房地产的走势还是应该持观察的态度。

The second question is about the current situation regarding real estate investment and its trend in H2. China's real estate investment rose 1.9% in the first six months year-on-year. However, many other indicators are still flat, such as floor space under construction , land purchased and sales of commercial housing. So, further observation is required to judge the trend in real estate development in H2. 

第三个问题,关于社会消费品零售总额上半年增长情况。上半年社会消费品零售总额仍然处于下降区间,比上年同期下降11.4%,说明目前消费恢复还是面临着制约,尤其是在常态化疫情防控条件下,一些聚集性、接触性的消费活动仍然受到一定制约,所以目前商品零售的餐饮收入还处于恢复增长的态势当中。关于下半年消费市场的增长态势,一方面随着疫情防控的有效推进,消费便利性在逐渐改善,另一方面随着供给侧结构性改革的逐步推进,消费的供给也在不断地优化。尽管消费的下半年走势面临着上述有利条件,但也面临不利条件,大家应该关注到上半年全国人均居民收入名义增长是正的,但实际增长下降1.3%,所以对消费能力的培养下半年要下更大气力。

The third question is about the total retail sales of consumer goods in H1. The total fell 11.4% year-on-year in the first half. It shows that there are still constraints on the recovery of consumption. As regular COVID-19 control is continued, some forms of consumption involving gatherings or human contact are still being restricted. So, catering industry revenue is still only moving towards restorative growth. Concerning the development of the consumer market in H2, as effective epidemic control measures continue to deliver progress, people will find it more convenient to go out for purposes of consumption. In addition, as supply-side structural reform is further advanced, there will be constantly optimized provision for high-quality goods and services. Despite these favorable conditions, we also need to recognize unfavorable ones. As you noticed, China's per capita disposable income increased in nominal terms in the first half of this year, but fell 1.3% in real terms. So, greater efforts will be needed to boost consumption in the second half of the year.

中国新闻社记者:

China News Service:

请问您怎么看待6月份城镇调查失业率的数据,这个数据是否真实反映了就业形势?随着高校毕业季的到来,未来就业压力会不会进一步加大?谢谢。

The NBS released data on its surveyed urban unemployment rate for June. Does this truly reflect the current job market situation in China? As college graduates leave university, are they going to face bigger pressures in finding jobs? Thank you.

刘爱华:

Liu Aihua:

谢谢你的提问。从今年上半年全国城镇调查失业率的走势看,是逐步下降的态势。今年以来,我们围绕稳就业、保民生,各级政策采取了强有力的措施,就业优先政策全面强化。这些政策在今年上半年确实取得了积极成效,近几个月全国城镇调查失业率逐月有所回落,6月份为5.7%,从我们统计的劳动参与率来看,也基本接近去年同期水平,比去年同期略低0.5个百分点。大家比较关注的疫情期间在职未上班的比重也持续降低,6月份已经下降到0.8%,与去年基本持平。其实在没有疫情情况下,我们的经济生活中也是有一部分由于休假或者各种原因处于在职未上班状态的人。所以,在就业优先政策作用下,今年上半年就业形势已经出现了积极变化。

Thank you for your question. According to the figures, in the first half of this year, the surveyed urban unemployment rate continued a downward trend. China has adopted some strong measures at various levels to stabilize employment and ensure people's well-being, and the employment-first policy is being fully implemented. These efforts have proved to be effective as the surveyed urban unemployment rate kept declining in recent months. The figure was 5.7% in June. The labor participation rate was also similar to last year's level, at only 0.5 percentage point lower than the same period last year. The proportion of furloughed employees, which people concern a lot, also declined to 0.8% in June, basically matching the figure last year. Even without the COVID-19 outbreak, there are also some people on furlough due to various reasons in daily life. Therefore, as we prioritize employment, the situation has made a positive turnaround in the first half of the year.

同时也要看到,受疫情冲击的影响今年的就业压力还是比较大的。今年上半年,城镇新增就业人员同比少增173万人。在城镇有一些重点群体的就业压力更突出,外出务工的农村劳动力有所减少,二季度末外出务工农村劳动力同比减少496万人,下降2.7%。大学生失业率创同期新高,受疫情影响,今年高校毕业生招聘需求下降,求职面试都受到一定限制。从劳动力调查数据显示,6月份,全国20-24岁大专及以上人员,这部分人群主要是新毕业大学生,调查失业率达到19.3%。这个19.3%比5月份上升2.1个百分点,比上年同期上升3.9个百分点。所以说目前的就业形势,一方面总体上有一些积极变化,另外一方面一些重点群体的压力比较大,我们的城镇调查失业率也比较准确的反映出这样的特点。

We can also see that the COVID-19 outbreak has had a significant impact on the job market. In the first half of this year, the number of newly increased urban jobs was 1.73 million lower than the same period last year. Meanwhile, some major groups such as migrant workers have been impacted disproportionally. By the end of the second quarter, the number of rural migrant workers dropped 2.7% year on year, with a reduction of 4.96 million. The unemployment rate of college graduates also hit a record high compared to the same period in previous years due to a decline in demand and certain restrictions in job seeking and interviews caused by the coronavirus outbreak. The surveyed unemployment rate among those with a junior college or higher degree aged 20-24 (mostly new graduates) was 19.3% in June, up 2.1 percentage points compared with the previous month, and 3.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Therefore, as we see some positive changes in the employment situation, some major groups still face significant pressures in finding jobs. Our surveyed urban unemployment rate also reflects this trend.

下一步,要按照《政府工作报告》要求,全面强化就业优先政策,千方百计稳定和扩大就业。首先,要稳住市场主体,落实好减税降费、减免社保费用房屋租金这些政策,帮助市场主体渡过难关,稳住就业的基本盘。其次,要促进高校毕业生的市场化、社会化就业,通过增加研究生招生规模等措施,来更好地解决高校毕业生就业问题。再有,就是加强就业帮扶,鼓励新业态就业和灵活就业,带动更多农村劳动力就地就近就业。谢谢。

Next, according to the government work report, we will fully implement the employment-first policy, and continue to work hard to stabilize and expand employment. First, we must implement policies to reduce taxes and fees, social security spending and rents to help businesses navigate difficulties in order to stabilize employment. Second, we should encourage market-based employment and solve the employment problem among college graduates through measures such as expanding enrollment in graduate schools. Third, we must provide greater assistance to job seekers, encourage employment in new business models and in flexible forms, and help rural residents seek jobs or start businesses in places close to their homes. Thank you.

南华早报记者:

South China Morning Post:

现在南方正在经历比较严重的洪涝灾害,洪灾对经济造成的影响是否有估算?是否涵盖在二季度GDP数据中?目前洪灾叠加疫情影响,预计对下半年中国经济带来多大影响?

Right now, large parts of southern China are hit by severe flooding, and so I wonder whether you have estimated the disaster's impact on the overall economy? Have the impact been taken into account when you estimated GDP data for the second quarter of 2020? How much impact will the disasters, including the current flooding and the COVID-19 epidemic, impose on Chinese economy in the second half of the year?

刘爱华:

Liu Aihua:

谢谢你的提问。目前新闻中关于南方洪涝灾害的报道非常多,我和大家一样都很关注南方洪涝灾害的影响。从目前统计出来的6月份数据看,一些领域已经有所显现,比如对物价的影响。在6月份的居民消费价格指数中,鲜菜的价格环比、同比都出现了由负转正现象,鲜菜同比价格从上个月下降8.5%,转为这个月上涨4.2%。但对更多领域的影响目前还在密切监测过程中,我们会在以后的数据中尽量关注到、监测到这方面的情况。

Thank you for your questions. Recently, there are many reports about the flooding in China's southern regions. I have paid close attention to the impact of the disaster just as has everyone else. The currently released statistics for June reflect the impact on some fields such as consumer prices. The consumer price index (CPI) data in June showed that prices for fresh vegetables rebounded in that month compared to month-on-month and year-on-year declines registered in May. Prices for fresh vegetables went up 4.2% year-on-year in June, compared with the 8.5% decline in May. However, the impact of flooding in other fields is still being closely monitored. We will continue to keep a close watch and take such impact into account in the future calculations. 

第二个问题,南方洪涝灾害对下半年经济走势会有什么样的影响?目前可以看到,今年的洪涝灾害对部分地区人民的生产生活秩序造成了比较严重的影响。上半年,我们在抗击疫情冲击过程中,采取宏观经济的逆周期调节政策,积累了相当多的经验,宏观调控方面的经验越来越丰富,也存在政策空间。所以从下阶段看,我们会密切关注,也及时地反映这方面的影响。谢谢。

For the second question, you asked how the flooding in southern regions would affect economic prospects in the second half of the year. Currently, in some flood-hit areas, people's daily life and work indeed have been greatly affected. In the first half of the year, during the fight against the COVID-19 epidemic, we adopted many macroeconomic policies to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments, and accumulated rich experience in macro-regulation and ensuring policy space. We will pay close attention to and promptly reflect the impact in this regard. Thank you.

中国矿业报记者:

China Mining News:

上半年采矿业为复工复产提供了煤炭、有色金属等能源原材料,为我国经济逐步复苏作出了贡献。我们注意到1-5月采矿业利润同比下降40%多,降幅有所扩大。我想问这其中的原因是什么?请预测一下下半年采矿业的盈利水平是否会好转?

In the first half of 2020, the mining sector provided coal, nonferrous metals and other energy raw materials for the resumption of work and production, making contributions to the gradual recovery of China's economy. We noticed that from January to May, profits from the mining sector decreased by more than 40% compared with the same period last year, and the rate of decline expanded. What is the reason for this? And, do you predict that the profitability of the mining sector will improve in the second half of the year?

刘爱华:

Liu Aihua:

谢谢你的提问。1-5月份,煤炭和有色金属采矿业的盈利水平下降幅度比较大,影响相关企业利润的因素非常多,包括市场需求、价格、生产经营成本等,都会对当期利润产生比较大的影响。具体从这两个行业看,主要是价格影响,尤其是国际输入性的价格影响。上半年国际能源价格出现了大幅波动,尤其4月份下降比较多。上半年算总账,国际能源价格同比下降30%以上。所以价格的影响对这两个行业影响是比较大的。国际输入性的影响目前确实存在很多不确定性因素,我们对采矿业利润的走势还需要进一步观察。谢谢。

Thank you for your question. The profit level of coal and nonferrous metal industries decreased by a large margin from January to May. The profits of enterprises are affected by many factors such as market demand, price, and production and operation costs. The price factor, especially the international imported price, has had a greater impact on these two industries. There was a dramatic fluctuation in international energy prices in the past six months, and April in particular, with a year-on-year decrease of more than 30% in the first half of the year. Therefore, the price has had a great impact on these two industries. Right now, there are many uncertain factors influencing the international price. We need to further observe the trends for profits in the mining sector. Thank you.

凤凰卫视记者:

Phoenix TV:

我们关注到,从数据看供给端的恢复快于需求端,请问这样恢复的不平衡会带来哪些问题?为了解决这样的问题还要采取哪些政策继续发力?特别是如何弥补内需的不足?谢谢。

We have noticed that the supply-side has recovered faster than the demand-side, as shown by the statistics. What problems will this imbalance in recovery bring? And what policies will be adopted as part of your efforts to deal with these problems? In particular, what efforts will be taken to make up for the lack of domestic demand? Thank you.

刘爱华:

Liu Aihua:

谢谢你的提问,你的观察非常仔细,这确实是大家普遍关注的问题。今年以来,如果说从横截面的数据来看,供给端恢复快于需求端。对这个问题我想从这几个方面谈谈我的认识。

Thank you for your question. Your observation is well noted and it is indeed a matter of public concern. Since this year, the supply-side has been recovering faster than the demand-side as far as the cross-sectional data is concerned. I would like to share my views on this matter from several aspects:

第一,今年上半年遭遇的新冠肺炎疫情对经济生产、人民生活,还包括大家生产生活的决策行为,产生的冲击都是前所未有的。对不同行业、不同决策产生的影响可能是因为我们缺少经验。目前来看工业恢复得更好一些,连续三个月正增长,服务业生产指数连续两个月正增长,服务业中有一些行业恢复得快一些,但住宿餐饮业等还处在深度下降过程中。从这两方面对比来看,供给端快于需求端,这也是我们目前观测到的一个现象,这可能和疫情冲击对不同的行为主体的决策影响有关系。比如在供给端,可能生产组织方面体现出来它是一个集中决策,需求端更多是分散决策,所以政策的见效都有一些不同。

First, the COVID-19 epidemic in the first half of this year had an unprecedented impact on the economy, production and people's lives, including their decision-making toward production and life. Its impact on different sectors and various decisions may be due to our lack of experience. So far, the industrial sector has seen better recovery with positive growth for three consecutive months. The production index of the service sector has registered positive growth for two consecutive months, with some businesses in this sector recovering faster, while other sectors such as accommodation and catering are still in deep decline. In comparison, we have also observed that the supply-side has been recovering faster than the demand-side at present. This may be related to the impact of the epidemic on decision-making by different market players. For instance, the production organization on the supply-side may be a process of centralized decision-making, while on the demand-side it may be more a case of decentralized decisions. That is why there have been some differences in the effects of policies.

第二,目前从横截面看,供给端恢复快于需求端,甚至在供给和需求内部也存在不同。在供给端内部,工业的回升要快于服务业的回升。在不同阶段也有不同表现,比如疫情冲击比较严重的时候,工业生产出现大幅下滑的时候,实际上服务业中有一些行业表现出很强韧性,比如金融业、信息传输、软件和信息服务业,这也体现了疫情中有一些行业应运而生、逆势而上。需求端也表现出不同步,目前虽然零售和投资数据在下降,但投资的恢复显然要好于消费的恢复,说明疫情对投资活动的影响小于消费方面,目前接触性、聚集性相关的消费,如住宿餐饮业,还是受到一定制约,所以它的恢复会稍微慢一些。

Second, cross-sectionally speaking, the supply-side recovers faster than the demand-side, and there are differences even within supply and demand respectively. On the supply-side, the recovery of the industrial sector is faster than that of the service sector, with different performances at different stages. For example, when industrial production slumped after being hit hard by the epidemic, some businesses in the service sector, including financial services, information transmission, software and information services, have indeed shown strong resilience. This shows that some businesses have risen against the tide and bucked the trend during the epidemic. The demand-side is also out of sync. Although the retail and investment data is declining, investments are recovering better than consumption, which reflects that the epidemic's impact on investment is smaller than on consumption. Now, there are still some restrictions on consumption involving contacts and gathering, such as accommodation and catering. This recovery will come slowly.

第三,请大家关注纵向趋势。按照时间纵向来看,不管供给端还是需求端,上半年都表现出回升或者降幅收窄的态势,虽然步伐有所区别,但总体回升态势不可否认。这可能是疫情冲击下经济逐步恢复的客观表现。目前在宏观政策方面,围绕助企纾困出台了90项政策,在需求端我们坚持扩大内需的基本战略。在这些政策的作用下,我们会逐渐畅通经济循环、逐渐畅通生产需求循环,最终推动整体经济回归正常轨道。

Third, let's look at the longitudinal trends. In terms of time longitudinally, both the supply-side and the demand-side have shown a trend of rebound or narrowing decline. Despite their different paces, the overall recovery cannot be denied. This may be an objective manifestation of gradual economic recovery from the impact of the epidemic. In terms of macro-policies, a total of 90 policies have been adopted involving enterprise bailouts. We will adhere to the fundamental strategy of expanding domestic demand on the demand-side. With these policies, we will gradually realize unimpeded flow in the economy and production demand, thus finally pushing the overall economy back onto a normal track.

路透社记者:

Reuters:

2020年是全面建成小康社会很重要的一年,请问您有信心中国能实现GDP和城乡居民人均收入比2010年翻一番的大目标吗?

2020 is a very important year for competing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects. Do you have confidence that China can achieve the goal of doubling GDP and the per capita income of urban and rural residents compared with those of 2010?

刘爱华:

Liu Aihua:

谢谢你的提问,你非常关注今年全面建成小康社会目标任务实现的问题。

Thank you for your question. You are very concerned about the realization of the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects this year.

首先,谈谈对全面小康的认识。从改革开放以来,我们对全面小康认识的内涵不断丰富。现在已经实现了人民生活解决温饱,总体小康也已实现。在这个基础上,党的十九大报告指出,到建党一百年时建成经济更加发展、民主更加健全、科教更加进步、文化更加繁荣、社会更加和谐、人民生活更加殷实的小康社会。所以全面建成小康社会是一个完整、系统、综合性的目标体系。

First, let me talk about the understanding of a moderately prosperous society in all respects. Since the start of reform and opening up, our understanding of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects has been continuously enriched. Already, the supply of adequate food and clothing has been guaranteed for the people. On this basis, the report to the 19th CPC National Congress pointed out that by the time the CPC celebrates its centenary, we will have developed our society into a moderately prosperous one with a stronger economy, greater democracy, more advanced science and education, thriving culture, greater social harmony, and a better quality of life. Therefore, building a moderately prosperous society in all respects is an intact, systematic and comprehensive set of targets.

第二,全面建成小康社会的目标和历次五年规划目标任务也是相衔接的,“十三五”规划中也包括了全面建成小康社会目标的主要内容。今年也是“十三五”规划的收官之年,从目前对这些指标的梳理来看,经过努力,“十三五”规划中提出的量化指标绝大部分都可以超额完成或者全面完成。比如GDP、城乡居民收入翻番的目标目前接近达到目标。

Second, the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects is consistent with the goals and tasks of the Five-Year Plans. The 13th Five-Year Plan also includes the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects. This year is the final year of the 13th Five-Year Plan. Judging from the current indicators, after much hard work, most of the quantitative indicators set in the 13th Five-Year Plan will be exceeded or fully completed. For example, the task of doubling GDP and the per capita income is currently close to completion. 

第三,今年《政府工作报告》指出脱贫攻坚是实现全面建成小康社会目标的标志。经过多年努力,到2019年末,全国农村贫困人口剩余551万人,贫困发生率降到0.6%,这些脱贫攻坚的目标人群是难中之难,是最难啃的“硬骨头”。今年突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情对贫困地区的农民收入、农民外出务工,包括农产品的销售都造成了一定的困难和挑战,所以,必须要按照既定部署坚持现行的目标标准不动摇,采取有力措施,坚决打赢脱贫攻坚战。

Third, this year's Government Work Report pointed out that winning the battle against poverty is a sign of achieving the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects. After years of hard work, by the end of 2019, the country's rural poor population was 5.51 million, and the poverty headcount ratio fell to 0.6%. Alleviating poverty among these people is the hardest nut to crack. The sudden COVID-19 outbreak this year has also caused certain difficulties and challenges for farmers' income, farmers' out-of-town work as well as the sale of agricultural products in poor areas. Therefore, we must adhere to the current goals and standards in accordance with the established deployment, and take effective measures to resolutely win the battle against poverty.

总体来说,目前已经奠定了全面建成小康社会的决定性基础,只要落实好目前《政府工作报告》提出的部署安排和政策措施,全面建成小康社会的目标就一定会如期实现。

Generally speaking, the decisive foundation for completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects has been laid. As long as the deployment and policy measures set in the Government Work Report are implemented, the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects will surely be achieved on schedule.

中央广播电视总台央广记者:

China National Radio (CNR):

我们注意到今年上半年物价保持平稳,目前我们遇到洪涝灾害,以及国内外疫情的这些不确定性因素,下半年我们的物价会保持什么态势?最近北京因为新发地疫情影响,猪肉价格有抬升迹象,下半年猪肉价格又会是怎样的走势呢?

We have noticed that prices have remained stable in the first half of this year. At present, we are experiencing a flood disaster, as well as the uncertainties in the epidemic situation at home and abroad. What will happen to our prices in the second half of the year? Recently, due to the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak at Xinfadi market in Beijing, pork prices have shown signs of rising. What will happen to pork prices in the second half of the year?

刘爱华:

Liu Aihua:

谢谢你的提问。你的关注点在物价方面,正像你所说,今年上半年我们的物价总体保持了平稳态势,上半年物价累计上涨3.8%,这个数据比一季度回落1.1个百分点。从月度变化来讲更加明显,基本是波动下行态势,6月份CPI同比上涨2.5%,是处于温和上涨区间。今年物价在疫情冲击还有最近洪涝灾害的冲击下,物价能够回到这样的区间,确实是各方面采取的保供稳价措施取得的效果。从物价目前的构成来看,推动物价上涨主要因素是结构性的,主要是食品价格推动,上半年3.8%的涨幅中8成左右都是来自食品推动,食品价格今年上半年上涨16.2%,对整个物价涨幅贡献超过8成。从6月当月看,食品价格上涨11.1%,物价略升0.1个百分点,也是主要贡献。从下半年决定物价走势的主要因素来看,目前工业和消费品在供需都比较平稳的情况下变化不会太大,主要因素还在食品方面。第一是粮食价格的影响。昨天,国家统计局刚刚公布了夏粮产量。夏粮产量增长了0.9%,夏粮丰收为粮食价格稳定乃至整体食品价格稳定奠定了非常好的基础。粮食价格目前不具备大幅度上涨的基础,可以说稳住了我们基本盘。

Thanks for your questions about the consumer price. As you mentioned, consumer prices remained generally stable in the first half of this year, with an overall price rise of 3.8% year-on-year, 1.1 percentage points lower than the first quarter. In terms of monthly changes, the price level has been showing a basical downward trend. In June, the consumer price index rose 2.5% year-on-year, growing within a moderate range. The COVID-19 pandemic and heavy floods posed challenges in maintaining stability. However, we made significant progress in this regard by taking various effective measures. Looking at the composition of the consumer price index, the major growth factor is structural, coming mainly from rising food prices. Among the overall growth of 3.8%, food contributed about 80% of the overall growth, having risen by 16.2% in the first half of the year. In June, the food price rise was 11.1%, and the CPI was 0.1 percentage point higher than the previous month. Food costs also form a major contributor to the overall price level. Looking at the major factors influencing prices in the next half-year, prices of industrial products and consumer goods will not see great changes as the supply and demand situation is basically balanced. Food prices will continue to be a major factor. Yesterday, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the overall output of summer grain increased by 0.9%, creating a pretty solid foundation to maintain grain prices and keeping overall food prices stable. So, there is no reason to expect the price of grain to grow significantly, which means that we are capable of maintaining a moderate growth range.

你的第二个问题是关于生猪价格走势。近两年来,各级政府采取了一系列的措施,比如增加资金补贴、保障用地等各方面措施推动生猪生产恢复。从二季度末情况看,生猪存栏数已经持续三个季度环比增长,生猪生产在逐步恢复。另一方面,也要看到生猪生产仍然面临一定困难,包括洪涝灾害对部分地区生猪出栏造成了一定影响,6月份数据已经有所体现,6月份猪肉环比价格涨幅转正,同比价格上涨81.6%,5月份为81.7%,5、6月涨幅基本持平。所以,一方面前一阶段采取的措施正在发挥效用,生猪产能正在逐渐恢复,另一方面又出现了洪涝灾害对生猪产能和猪肉价格的影响,总体来看产能恢复还是比较明显的,产能恢复必将对下一阶段猪肉价格影响逐渐体现出来。

Your second question is about the trend in the price of hogs. Over the past two years, governments at all levels have taken a series of measures, such as increasing the subsidies and ensuring the level of land used for hog production is sufficient. By the end of the second quarter, the number of pigs registered in stock had grown for three consecutive quarters, measured on a quarter-to-quarter basis. Hog production capacity continues to recover. However, there are challenges in recovering the hog production capacity, such as the impact brought about by heavy floods on the number of pigs that are sent to slaughter in some areas. In June, the pork price increased by 81.6% year-on-year, roughly the same as that of May, which was 81.7%. Positive month-on-month growth was recorded. On the one hand, the measures we took previously are taking effect and the hog production capacity is recovering gradually. On the other hand, we should take notice that the floods affected hog production capacity and hence the pork price. Overall, we have seen notable progress in recovering hog production capacity, and the recovered production capacity will have positive impact on the pork price in the next stage.

第三,洪涝灾害对鲜菜价格的影响。目前洪涝灾害对部分地方的鲜菜生产、贮运都造成了影响。当月的鲜菜价格环比由负转正,洪涝灾害是短期的气象因素,对鲜菜的短期供给可能造成比较大的影响,甚至局部地区会表现比较突出。但是大家知道,鲜菜的供给周期比较短,加上生产的调运调配等政策的跟进,鲜菜价格不会出现特别大幅的变动,不会对下半年的价格走势造成持续影响。

Third, there is the impact on vegetable prices caused by floods. Recently, the production, storage and transportation of vegetables in some areas have all been affected by floods. The vegetable price this month reported a positive growth compared to last month. Floods are a temporary problem that may heavily influence the supply of vegetables in the short run, especially in certain areas. However, we all know that the cycle for supplying vegetables is relatively short. And with the supportive policies regarding to production and redistribution of vegetables among different areas, we do not expect great fluctuations in vegetable prices and the vegetable prices will not have a significant influence on the overall price trend in the second half of this year. 

目前食品中的鲜果价格仍在下降,水产品的价格也比较稳定。从这些方面来看,下半年食品价格尽管短期可能局部出现一定的波动,但总体上稳中有降的态势不会发生改变,整个物价态势会继续保持平稳。谢谢。

Currently, fruit prices are still declining and the price for aquatic products remains stable. Taking these aspects into consideration, food prices overall may fluctuate in the short run but will basically remain stable, with some declines. The overall consumer price will continue to remain stable. Thanks.

香港经济导报记者:

Hong Kong Economic Herald:

我的问题是关于就业,2019年《政府工作报告》中30次提到就业,2020年《政府工作报告》39次提到就业,提到的频率增长了30%,显然在经济下行的过程中就业压力是比较大的。请问发言人怎么看待下半年的就业?谢谢。

My question is about employment. The word "employment" was mentioned in the Report on the Work of the Government in 2019 for 30 times, while it was mentioned in this year's government work report for 39 times, with an increase of 30 percent in its frequency. It's clear that the employment pressure is severe in the process of economic downturn. What's your opinion on the employment situation in the next half of this year? Thank you.

刘爱华:

Liu Aihua:

谢谢你的提问。就业确实是今年关注的重点,政府工作报告多次提到就业,优先稳就业、保民生是今年的工作重点,也是“六保”、“六稳”之首的重点任务,围绕做好就业工作,各级政府采取了非常积极的措施。目前经济回升的态势比较明显,这个基本面的变化也会对就业产生稳定的作用,有助于稳就业、扩就业。

Thank you for your question. Employment is indeed the focal point of this year, as it was mentioned many times in the government work report. Stabilizing employment and ensuring people's livelihoods are the focus of this year and also the priority of the tasks of ensuring security in the six areas and stability on the six fronts. Focused on stabilizing employment, governments at all levels have taken active measures. Right now, the trend of economic recovery is obvious and the change of the fundamentals will help stabilize and boost employment. 

从国家统计局开展的快速调查看,企业复工复岗的态势在持续,很多行业的企业都在扩招岗位,当然也有一些行业当前招聘的需求不是非常强烈。但随着强化就业优先政策的持续显效,随着基本面的逐步回升,随着企业发展能力的增强,下半年我们有信心保持就业形势的总体稳定。谢谢。

On the basis of a quick survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics, the resumption of work and positions maintain a good momentum; enterprises in many industries are adding new job opportunities. Of course, some industries now do not have a strong need for fresh recruitment. However, as the strengthened employment-first policy continues to work, and with the gradual recovery of the fundamentals and enhanced developmental capacities of enterprises, we are confident we can maintain the overall stability of employment in the next half-year. Thank you.

寿小丽:

Shou Xiaoli:

爱华司长对统计数字和情况非常熟,手里就只有一张白纸,回答了这么多问题,有一个小时时间。今天的新闻发布会就到这里,谢谢各位记者朋友们,大家再见。

Ms. Liu is very familiar with statistics and the situation. With a sheet of paper in hand, she has answered so many questions over the past hour. That's the end of today's press conference. Thank you, friends from the media. See you next time.


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