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科技同传:AI时代人类的教育


来源:天之聪口译    作者:天之聪口译   时间:2019-09-19 10:03   点击: 次  


科技类同传--地球最强二马激辩:AI时代人类的教育

Hello! 聪迷们,转眼间又开学喽,2019年下半场准备好怎么通关木有?CATTI报完名得马上学起来啦,时间真是嗖嗖地一晃而过,了无痕迹!

2019世界人工智能大会World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC)刚刚落幕,但双马(特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)和阿里巴巴董事局主席马云)精彩纷呈的激辩让人久久不能平复,尤其是两位对于教育问题的抱怨及解决方案。马云说,“现在很多人担心工作、失业,而我最担心的是我们的教育,担心我们的教育系统、担心我们教孩子的内容和我们教孩子的方式。马斯克则表示:未来教育应该围绕“如何提高对未来的预测力”展开。过去,人类在判断未来时犯了太多错误。

正如两位大佬所言,要解决人类所面临的问题,教育是关键。下面,我们来挑战下,给技术大牛做同传!

Let’s talk about education, I’m quite interested about education. Can we? What knowledge or skills will be useful to master the future? Do you have any advice for young professionals who want to pursue a career in AI?

马云:我对教育很感兴趣,讲一下教育吧。未来要我们掌握哪些知识或者技能,从而有助于我们获得更多优势?对于想要从事人工智能的年轻人你有什么建议吗?

Young professionals, I don’t think we will have professionals in AI in the future. People worry about jobs, but I worry about education. All the education systems, things we teach our kids, the way we teach our kids, are mainly designed for the industrial period. I’m sure the machine will be much clever than human beings in the future. How can human being do better? Human being should be smarter, human being should be wiser? How can we human beings to be wiser or smarter? I think we should change the way of education, change the things.

马云:我认为在未来不会有人工智能的专业人士。人们经常担心工作,我担心的是教育。所有的教育体系给孩子教的东西,教的方式主要是为工业时代所设计的,我相信机器会更加聪明,会比人在未来聪明很多。人怎么能够做得更好,怎么变得更智慧更聪明呢?我们应该改变教育方式,改变教的内容。

Because in the past, we focus a lot about, you know, remember things. Computer can remember better than you are. We want to calculate faster, computer can calculate much faster. We want to run faster, computer can run much faster than you are. So human beings should have confidence by be more creative, more constructive. So, how can we teach our kids to be more creative and constructive? I think this is the key of the education.

马云:过去我们专注的都是记忆,但计算机可以比你记得更好,算得更快,你想要跑得更快,但机器可以跑得比你更快。人类要更有创意,更有建设性,怎么教孩子有更多的创意、更有建设性呢?我觉得这是教育的关键。

I want spending more time on training kids on arts, on painting, on singing, on dancing. You know on these creative things that make people live like humans. Don’t worry about machines. For sure, we should understand one thing that man can never make another man. Computer is a computer, computer is just a toy. Man cannot even make a mosquito. We should have confidence, computer only have chips, men have the heart. It’s the heart where the wisdom comes from. So I think in the next ten or twenty years, human beings of every country, every government should focus on reform the education system, making sure our kids be able to find jobs in the future, be able to live a life that only work three days a week, four hours a day, and that is very important. If we do not change the education system that we are in, we are all in going to be in trouble, that’s my view. Don’t worry about it, we will change it.

马云:我们可以花更多时间来训练培训孩子去学艺术,学画画,学跳舞,这些都是创意的事情。我们要理解一点,人从来没有办法制造一个人。计算机就是机器,机器就是一个玩具。我们要有信心,机器只有芯片,而我们有心,我们的心是智慧的来源。所以接下来的10年20年,各个国家、政府应该去改革教育体系来确保孩子能够找到工作,在今后每周只工作3天,每天工作4个小时,这是非常重要的。

Yeh, I want to say try to learn as much as possible that allows you to predict the future or make the future. Saddest thing is the best way to predict future is to make it. Assess what you’re learning is enabling you to predict the future with less error. We always wrong to some degree, but can you reduce the error on your future predictions. I think that’s the way to look at education. Of course, with both creative create the future and predict the future, so that includes art and a lot of other things. With close loop on being less wrong about future, I’d say that’s the right way you think about education.

马斯克:是的。要尽可能多地多学一点,让自己能够更好地预测未来、创造未来。预测未来最好的方法就是去创造未来。我们要评估一下自己在学的东西,是不是能够让自己预测未来,让自己减少错误?我们可以通过这个方式来思考教育。

Down the road was neural link, you can just upload any subject instantly. So, we like the matrix. If you want to do whatever any given skill, we just upload instantly. On the way, education works now extremely low bandwidth. Lectures are the worst, really. Try to predict the future with less error, this is very hard, as you say our share is 99.99%, it’s not really good generally our predictable future. But I think the first thing is to try, you got try and then adjust based on error of your previous predictions.

马斯克:说到神经连接,我们可以把任何东西进行上传,任何技能都可以即刻上传。现在的教育是带宽很低很慢的,讲课是最糟糕的方法。预测未来时,我们要犯更少的错也是很难的,并不一定99%是错,但是我们经常错得很多。我们还是要去尝试,不尝试不行,要去尝试、去调整,根据之前预测的错误做调整。

I think just try is very good. We should always have the confidence to try in the future. I never worry about errors and mistakes. Errors and mistakes are the best assets of human lives. I think when people worry about the disasters that AI is gonna brining, I think it’s not the disasters, it’s the mistakes that human beings make. Trust human beings will be able to correct the mistake and improve themselves. That we will need education.

马云:是的,去尝试很好,我们要永远有信心在未来做尝试。错误可以说是人类最好的资产、最好的财富,人们担心人工智能灾难的时候,我觉得这并不是灾难或者人类犯的错,我们要相信人类是能够改善错误,改善自己的。这就需要教育。

In China today, we have 18 hundred new babies born every year, which is not enough, we need have much more than that. I think the best resources of the human beings, or the best resources on the earth are not the coal, not oil, not electricity. It’s the human brains. How can we make the human brains more creative, constructive? How can we make sure that the machines are always the toys and tools of humans, rather than the control. So, I never in my life, especially last two years when people talk about AI say human beings will be controlled by machines, I never think about that, I think it’s impossible, because human beings are different, machines invented by human beings. According to the science, humans can never create another animal that is smarter than humans, especially here we have so many smart people. It’s impossible to make another smart people.

马云:今天在中国每年都有大量婴儿出生,这还不够,我们需要更多。地球上最早的资源并不是煤炭、石油、电力,而是人类的大脑,怎么让人类大脑更有创意、更有建设性呢?怎么确保机器永远是人类的玩具和工具,而不是控制我们呢?在我这一辈子当中尤其过去两年,大家经常谈人工智能,说人类会被机器控制,我从来不想这些问题,这是不可能的。因为人是不一样的,机器是人类发明的。根据科学,人从来无法创造一个比自己更聪明的动物,在这里有很多聪明人,但我们还是没有办法创造一个更聪明的人。

I very much disagree with that.

马斯克:我非常不同意你的看法。

Ok, that’s good.

马云:这非常好。

We can definitely make things smarter than ourselves, I mean they don’t used to be humans. Early civilizations are very primitive. We don’t have any technology really, we just run and run, you know trying not to get eaten, survive the winter. Now we have like heating, we grew food, these are all new stuff. So, things are obvious that we are smarter than the past. That will continue, we are not the last step of revolution. The most important thing, like you said, the most important mistake I say smart people making is assuming they are smart.

马斯克:我们可以创造比我们更聪明的东西,他们并不一定要是人。最早的文明是非常原始的,当时没有任何技术,只是跑来跑去,不要被别人吃掉,想要生存下来。现在我们有取暖,有很多的食物,这些都是新的东西。我们比过去聪明了很多,这会继续下去,并不是最后的革命。像你说的,聪明人犯的最严重的错误就是自以为聪明。

So, give me example, what the animals or things that human being made that is smarter than human beings?

马云:我举一个例子,哪个人类创造的东西比人更聪明?

Computers actually are already much smarter than people on so many dimensions, we just keep moving the goal posts. We used to think like, for example, being good at chess was an example of smart human. Kasparov was crushed by deep learning in 1997, that was a long time ago. 22 years, I mean right now your cellphone could crush the world champion chess literally. Go used to be sort of something that human beings are better than computers. Lee Sedol was beaten for 4:1 by Alpha Zero. Alpha Zero crushed AlphaGo 100:0. Now, it’s just pointless because it just keeps explaining itself, humans trying to play computer Go is like trying to fight Zues, it’s not gonna work, we are hopeless. This is just a small corner of intellectual pursuit that humans are better than computers, every year they get smaller and smaller. We far surpass it in every single way guaranteed. Or civilization win, those are two possibilities.

马斯克:计算机已经在很多方面比人更聪明了,我们的目标在变得更高。比如过去下棋是聪明人才会下的,现在你的手机就可以下棋打败世界冠军。围棋以前大家觉得人比电脑强,但是李世石被阿尔法go 4:1打败了,阿尔法zero 100:0打败了阿尔法go。人类和计算机下围棋就像和宙斯斗争一样是没有希望的,我们差太远了。人类智力会在越来越少的方面表现得比计算机好,每个方面以后会被计算机越来越多的超越,这是肯定的,或者文明能够取胜,这是两个可能。

My view is that computer may be clever, but human beings are much smarter. Clever is very academic, it’s knowledge-driven; smarter is experience-driven. Computer is clever, but it’s human being, we invented computer, we never see a computer invented a human being.

马云:计算机可能更聪明,但是人类要有更多的智慧。聪明是学术驱动的,但是智慧是经验驱动的。计算机很聪明,但是是人类发明了计算机,我从来没有看到计算机发明一个人。

Second point is that about Go play chess. It’s stupid to compete with a computer on play Go. Just like a hundred years ago when human being created cars, human being say I can run faster than car, it’s impossible. It’s only stupid people to compete with a car who run faster. Go is designed for human to play with human. The chess is designed for human to human, why should a human to fight against a computer? So, I never ever play chess or Go with computer. I will be happy to see two computers fight each other, I’m not interested in playing Go with chess. So, I told those guys they are very sad, computer will be smarter than human beings because computers can play chess better. I think you’re stupid to compete with that, don’t do that. We always do things we are good at.

马云:第二点,说到围棋和下棋。和计算机下棋这很愚蠢,像100年前人们创造了机器,人们说我可以比汽车跑得快这是不可能的,只有傻子才会去和汽车去赛跑。围棋是为人类设计的,棋是让人和人下的,为什么人要和计算机下棋呢?我从来不下棋,不和计算机下围棋。很高兴看两个计算机下棋,但是我对于和计算机下棋没有兴趣。有些人很悲伤说计算机比人聪明,计算机下棋下得更好,我觉得和计算机下棋很傻,不要这样做,我们要做我们擅长的事情。

What would be an example of something that humans are better than computer and let’s see if that happens?

马斯克:人比计算机哪些方面比较强,会不会发生这样的情况?

Computer is only one of the clever tools that humans created. Computers are clever, but there will be more tools that human beings will create much clever than computer. That’s my view.

马云:计算机只是人类创造的聪明的工具之一。计算机是聪明的,但是人类今后会创造更多的工具,会比计算机聪明更多,这是我的看法。

Let me tell you my view on AI is essentially you can view the advancement of AI as solving things with increasing degrees of freedom. So, the most degree of freedom is reality. AI is steadily advanced, solving things that have more and more degrees of freedom. Obviously, something like checker was very easy to solve. We can solve with classical software, classical computing, not really challenging. And there is complete solution for checkers, meaning it’s literally impossible. Every version of checkers is known. Chess, it had many many more degrees of freedom than checkers, was still really I would say a low degree of freedom game. Then there is Go which had more degrees of freedom than chess. So, it’s really steeping through all these magnitudes of degree of freedom, this is the way to view the advancement of intelligence. We can completely simulate a person in every way like many people simultaneously.

马斯克:对于人工智能,我的看法是,说到底你可以推进人工智能来解决问题,让人们有更多的自由度。有最多自由度的就是现实。比如下跳棋是很容易解决的,用传统的软件计算机就可以解决的,这没有什么挑战。可以说在下跳棋方面,机器有完整的解决方案,人类几乎不可能赢,机器对人类的每一个套路都已经知道了。然后就是象棋,自由度比跳棋高很多,但是也是自由度数量级比较低的游戏。之后到了围棋,自由度比象棋高很多,所以我们不断地在跳跃自由度,数量级在不断地上升,智能的数量级也在不断地上升,可以完全模拟人的各个方面。

Someone make a joke of like, you know, if life was a video game, what would be the view. Graphics are incredible, the plot is confusing. The reborn takes a long time, that’s video game, that’s life. Takes 20 years for human being to have consciousness. I’m worried about the birth rate which you iterate early, most people think we have too many people on the planet, but actually this is an outdated view. It’s seeming that AI is fine, it’s seeming that there is enabling future with AI. I think the biggest problem the world will face in 20 years is population collapse. I want to emphasize this, the biggest issue in 20 years will be population collapse. Not explosion, collapse. It’s very easy to see what the world would look like in 20 years because humans have a 20 year ooze-quence. So, like you said who was born last year, now you know what the world would look like in 20 years, it’s that easy.  

马斯克:有人说现在我们就活在一种模拟当中,有人开玩笑说,如果生活就是一种游戏,那么大家有什么看法呢?我觉得我们的图像很好,情节也非常复杂,但是要让一个人重生获得完全的意识可能还要20多年。你讲的出生率我并不担心,大多数人觉得人口太多了,但是这是一种过时的看法。假设人工智能能够带来一个美好的未来,世界在20年后面临的最大问题就是人口的崩溃。20年后最大的问题就是人口的崩溃并不是人口的爆炸,我们可以很清楚的预见20年后人类的情况。人类重生要花20年。

I absolutely agree with that the population problem is gonna be facing huge challenge. 1.4 billion people in China sounds a lot, but I think next 20 years will see this thing will bring big trouble to China, the speed of population decreasing is gonna speed up, you called collapse, I agree with that, accelerating collapse.  

马云:我觉得这是很容易预测的,我同意人口问题是一个巨大的挑战。中国14亿人听起来很多,但是今后20年这会给中国带来巨大的问题,人口会下降,人口下降的速度会增加,加速崩溃。

Commenter bubbles what about immigration? Like from where? There are people there right now, there are robuts there.

马斯克:有人反驳说会有移民,从哪里移过来呢?还要去火星,火星也需要有人去住,现在那里没有人,只有一些机器人在那里。

This is something that we should pay special attention, that’s why the 18 million new babies born in China, which was less than only 1% something, we should spend more time create these people and treat life better.

马云:这是我们需要特别注意的,我们需要更多时间让新的孩子出生。

But also, I think about AI, there is another thing. In our company, AI, we called Alibaba intelligence, because we think when things with order, things with logic, machine can always do better, AI can do better. But if things are without order, without logic, human can do better. For example, when you love somebody, there is no reason normally, I just love him/her, I have no reason. But when I hate somebody, when I want to do bad thing on somebody, there is logic. When there is logic, AI can do better. What we do on our Ant financing, we teach machine all the bad things that bad guys want to do. Machine can learn quickly and arrest all the bad guys immediately. But when you want to do good things, not necessarily.

马云:关于另外一个问题,在我的公司,有秩序、有逻辑的事情,机器总是能够做得很好,如果没有秩序或者逻辑,人类可以做得很好。你爱某些人基本上没有理由,没有任何道理,但是如果恨一个人,当我想要在一些人身上做一些坏事情就有逻辑了,一旦有逻辑,AI可以比你做得更好。

AI means love.

马斯克:AI本来就是爱。

That’s absolutely right. That is why the world, if the AI can bring love, which I called, in the past if you are be successful person, you have to be EQ and IQ. In the future, if you want to survive in this world, you have to be the LQ, that’s important too. Otherwise, cannot survive the artificial intelligence time.

马云:你说得很对,AI世界当中,AI如果能够带来爱的话,以前如果你是一个成功的人士必须情商和智商都高,未来想要在世界上生存下来必须有LQ,就是爱的智商要高,不然在人工智能时代没有办法生存下来。

Love this answer.

马斯克:我非常喜欢你的回答。

好啦,聪迷们,体验完技术同传有什么感受呢?有没有觉得也不是那么难?如果你是麦克风前的译员,会有更好的处理方法吗?欢迎大家留言写出你觉得更好的译文!

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