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视译资料:刘晓明解析五热词:中国发展前景光明


来源:驻英使馆    作者:天之聪教育   时间:2014-03-10 17:14   点击: 次  

3月6日,刘晓明大使在英国《名流》杂志发表署名文章《解析五热词:中国发展前景光明》,全文如下:

On 6 March, H.E. Ambassador Liu Xiaoming wrote an article in the FIRST Magazine entitled Why the Pessimists Are Wrong on China. The full text is as follows:
 

关于中国未来发展,国际上有许多议论和预测,有乐观的,也有悲观的。在这些议论中,一些热门专业术语反复出现。本文旨在结合这些热门词汇来分析中国的发展前景。

There have been many discussions and forecasts about China's future development. Some are optimistic. Others are pessimistic. Some terms have appeared repeatedly in these discussions. This article is aimed at analysing China's development prospects by citing these frequently used terms.

第一个词是“刘易斯拐点”。

The first one is the Lewis turning point.

诺贝尔经济学奖得主威廉•刘易斯教授指出,随着工业化进程的深入,富余劳动力供给会逐渐减少直至最终枯竭。从发展中经济到发达经济,都要经历这样的“刘易斯拐点”。

According to Nobel laureate in economics Sir Arthur Lewis, in the process of development there will be a point at which the excess labour in the subsistence sector is fully absorbed into the modern sector.

不久前中国一些城市都出现了“用工荒”,有人认为这就是中国劳动力过剩向劳动力短缺转折的标志。

Not long ago, a shortage of labour was reported in some cities of China. Some believe this symbolises the arrival of this 'Lewis turning point' for China's economy. These analysts conclude that this is where China turns from an economy of excess labour supply to one of labour shortage.

其实所谓“刘易斯拐点”的出现只是给中国经济发展敲了一下警钟,它促使中国加快经济转型升级、实现可持续发展。中国“人口红利”效应非但不会消失,反而会通过“改革红利”得到新的释放。

Indeed, the thinking behind the 'Lewis turning point' is taken very seriously in China. It has prompted China to speed up economic transformation and upgrading. The aim for China is to achieve sustainable development. China's demographic dividend will not dwindle. Instead, it will be further released through reform. The reasons are as follows:

首先,所谓“用工荒”只是暂时现象。去年底召开的中国共产党十八届三中全会提出加快新型城镇化步伐,特别是要加快户籍制度改革,全面放开建制镇和小城市落户限制,有序放开中等城市落户限制,把进城落户农民完全纳入城镇住房和社会保障体系,这些举措将促进更多的农村富余劳动力成为城市居民,为现代工业和服务业提供大量稳定的劳动力。

First, the so-called Chinese labour shortage was only a temporary phenomenon. The Third Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee late last year set out a series of measures to tackle it, such as quickening urbanisation, especially expediting the reform of the household registration system, lifting restrictions on mobility between towns, small cities and medium cities, and extending urban housing benefits and social safety net to the newly urbanised. These measures will encourage more surplus labour in rural areas to migrate to cities and ensure adequate labour supply for modern industry and the services sector.

第二,中国正在加强对劳动者的培训,不断提高劳动者的素质和技能,以此来弥补廉价劳动力减少造成的生产成本增加。三中全会提出要深化教育领域综合改革,逐步缩小区域、城乡、校际差距。

Second, China is redoubling efforts to train its human resources. A highly skilled workforce will offset the extra cost caused by decreasing levels of low-cost labour. In addition, the Third Plenum stressed deepening educational reform. The aim is to bridge the divide between regions, between rural and urban areas, and between colleges.

第三,中国的人口政策还有很大的调节空间。比如,三中全会启动了“单独”夫妇可生育两个孩子的政策,这就可以有效扩大就业人口基数,应对人口老龄化问题,促进中国人口的长期均衡发展。

Third, there will be adjustments to China's demographic policy. For example, the Third Plenum revised the family planning policy, allowing couples to have two children if one parent is an only child. This policy adjustment is aimed to increase the base of population in employment, tackle population ageing, and guarantee the long-term stability of the Chinese population.

第二个热词是“基尼系数”。

The second frequently used term is the Gini coefficient, also known as Gini index.

作为衡量贫富差距的重要指标,中国的基尼系数近十年都超过了0.4这一公认的警戒线,处于0.47至0.491这一区间,凸显了中国加快收入分配改革、缩小收入差距的紧迫性。

This is an important yardstick for equality of income and wealth distribution. A reading of 0.4 is internationally regarded as a warning of dangerous levels of inequality. In the recent decade, China's Gini index has been between 0.47 and 0.49. China recognises the dangers that can emerge from so big a gap between the rich and the poor.

近年来,中国连续通过提高最低工资和企业养老金标准、调整个人所得税税率和起征点、增加对低收入群体的转移支付、加大对“三农”的扶持力度等措施调整收入分配结构,取得了一定的成效。

In recent years, China has taken a number of measures to address the issue. For example: raising minimum wage levels and pension standards, adjusting income tax rate and threshold, increasing transfer payment to low income earners and scaling-up support for agriculture, farmers and rural areas. These measures have paid off.

随着中国经济不断增长,中国还将把做大的蛋糕分得更好。

As the Chinese economy continues to grow, China will improve income distribution so that the increased economic benefits are shared as widely as possible.

三中全会提出,要着重保护劳动所得,提高劳动报酬在初次分配中的比重,健全工资正常增长机制,完善以税收、社会保障、转移支付为主要手段的再分配调节机制,扩大中等收入者比重,努力缩小城乡、区域、行业收入分配差距、逐步形成橄榄型分配格局。

To this end, the Third Plenum has laid out the following measures:

• Protect its income from honest work and raise the ratio of work pay in primary distribution.

• Improving the mechanism for advancing pay increases.

• Upgrading redistribution tools, such as taxation, social security and transfer payments.

• Enlarging the middle income class.

• Closing the income gap between urban and rural areas, between regions, and between sectors.

• Forming an 'olive-shape' income pattern.

同时,我们也将反腐作为缩小贫富差距的重要方面,通过坚决反腐来有效遏制由贪污、收受贿赂、渎职等产生的“灰色收入”,切断权钱勾结的链条,促进社会公平正义。

At the same time, China views anti-corruption measures as an important means to increase income equality. Cracking down on corruption will stem 'grey income' from bribes, embezzlement and abuse of power. This will prevent rent-seeking and promote social equity and justice.

第三个名词是“PM2.5指数”。

The third term I wish to cite is PM 2.5 density.

随着近来中国雾霾天气的增多,PM2.5成为中国家喻户晓的新名词。PM2.5尽管是一个气象学术语,但已成为考验中国经济发展的一道经济学难题。

PM 2.5 has become a household name in China. This is due to frequent occurrences of heavy smog across China. Though a meteorological term, PM 2.5 has become a severe test for the Chinese economy.

中国是否应以牺牲环境为代价来获取GDP增长?这个问题的答案是显然的。

It raises the question whether China should achieve GDP growth at huge environmental and human cost? China's answer is clearly 'No'.

中国转变发展方式很重要一条就是要加强生态建设。在三中全会确立的“五位一体”的改革总体布局中,生态文明制度建设是其中重要一环。全会提出要实行“最严格的源头保护制度、损害赔偿制度、责任追究制度、完善环境治理和生态修复制度”。

An important aspect of China's endeavour to transform its economic growth model is to toughen measures of environmental protection.

Conservation of the eco-environment is an important part in the 'five-in-one' reform master plan drawn up at the Third Plenum.

This 'blueprint' states that China will enforce the strictest regulation of environmental protection, damage compensation, accountability and punishment. China will also improve its system of environmental management and ecological restoration.

最近,我们不仅关停并转大量高能耗高污染企业,实行汽车限行限号,节能减排,而且将生态文明纳入领导干部的政绩考核,对限制开发区域和生态脆弱的国家扶贫开发工作重点县取消GDP考核,还要对领导干部实行自然资源资产离任审计。上世纪后半期,伦敦能够摘除“雾都”的帽子,我相信,通过转变发展观念和采取综合治理措施,我们同样能还中国民众一个蔚蓝的天空。

Recently, China has adopted measures to conserve energy and cut emissions. These include:

• Closing down large numbers of energy-intensive businesses.

• Enforcing vehicle restriction and emission rules.

• Using environmental protection as one of the criteria for assessing performance of local officials.

• Cancel mandatory GDP growth targets for natural conservation areas or ecologically fragile regions.

• And audit natural resources when a local official leaves his post.

London used to be known as 'the city of fog'. Today, it has successfully shaken off that famous image. I am confident that likewise China can return to its people clear blue skies through the shift of China's growth model and with comprehensive measures of pollution control and treatment.

第四个词是“中等收入陷阱”。

The fourth term I will cite today is the middle income trap.

人们普遍认为,当新兴市场国家人均GDP达到3000美元附近时,这个国家即步入危险区。快速发展中积聚的矛盾集中爆发,不少发展中国家在这阶段掉入“中等收入陷阱”,出现增长停滞、危机频发、社会动荡等问题。

It is widely believed that an economy is in a high risk area when its per capita GDP reaches US$3,000. At this level, social tensions caused by fast economic growth have been shown to have the potential to explode. Then economic growth is blocked by social upheavals. Many developing countries are marooned in a middle income trap and plagued by economic stagnation, crisis and social turmoil.

我们认为,中国避免落入“中等收入陷阱”,一是要全面深化改革,保持增长动力。改革是中国发展的最大动力。十八届三中全会就是中国“二次改革”的宣言书和行动纲领。全会提出市场要在资源配置中起决定性作用,这是重大理论突破,也是经济体制改革的核心。中国将加强顶层设计和摸着石头过河相结合,努力实现整体推进和重点突破相促进。

China has studied the cases of many countries and concludes that to avoid the 'middle income trap' China must keep the growth engine running.

First, China will comprehensively deepen reform. Reform is the most powerful driving force for China's development. The Third Plenum of 2013 is the manifesto and action plan for China's second round of reform.

The 2013 Third Plenum asserted that market forces should play a decisive role in resources allocation. This is a major theoretical breakthrough. It is also the kernel of China's economic reform. Following this principle, China will strengthen top-down design while continuing to 'cross the river by feeling the stones.' We will try to both achieve general progress and make advances in key areas.

二是推动经济转型升级,实施创新驱动战略,积极扩大内需。中国正在加快从要素驱动发展为主向创新驱动发展转变,通过依靠科技创新,降低对能源、资源、环境的消耗,走新型工业化、信息化、城镇化和农业现代化“四化同步”的发展道路。从扩大内需来说,前不久《金融时报》在展望2014年时,乐观预计中国经济会实现7%以上的增长,其最主要的理由是认为中国消费将持续强劲增长。

Second, China will promote economic transformation and upgrading, greatly encourage innovation and expand domestic demand. The Chinese economy is shifting from reliance on factors of production to innovation. Through scientific innovation, we aim to reduce energy and resources consumption as well as lower environmental cost. We aim to achieve parallel progress in industrialisation, informationisation, urbanisation and agricultural modernisation. In terms of domestic demand, the recent Financial Times forecasts for 2014 are very upbeat about China, predicting a growth of over 7 per cent. One of the main reasons is that it believes consumption in China will continue to grow.

三是要处理好收入分配、人口老龄化、社会福利保障等社会问题,突破利益固化的樊篱,让人民普遍享受发展成果,为经济发展保驾护航。

Third, China will properly handle social problems like income distribution, population ageing and social welfare. China will break the fetters of vested interests, allow the mass population to share the fruits of development and ensure continued economic growth.

最后我要谈一谈所谓的“修昔底德陷阱”,这不是经济学术语,是国际政治术语。

Last but not least, I want to say a few words about the Thucydides trap. You may wonder why, as this is not an economic term, but a term of international politics.

2500年前的古希腊史学家修昔底德在总结雅典和斯巴达之间的战争时说,“使得战争无可避免的原因是雅典日益壮大的力量,还有这种力量在斯巴达造成的恐惧”。这进而引伸出一种观点,新兴大国一定会挑战既有大国,而既有大国必然要回应这种挑战,战争是唯一的出路,这是大国政治注定的悲剧。随着中国成为世界第二大经济体,近年来不断有人渲染这种历史宿命论。

2500 years ago, the Greek historian Thucydides wrote of the war between Athens and Sparta like this:

'It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this inspired in Sparta that made war inevitable.'

A generalisation of this argument is an emerging power is bound to challenge an established power. The latter without exception reacts to the challenge. Hence war is inevitable. This is the doom scenario of power politics. With China growing to become the world's second largest economy, this is a popular prediction.

历史不是自然科学,不存在所谓的“铁律”。人们记录历史的目的就是提醒后人不要重犯历史的错误。在人类经历两次世界大战的惨痛教训,在全球化深入发展的二十一世纪,没有和平,就不会有发展。中国坚持走和平发展道路,中国对外政策的目的就是为国内发展创造良好的外部环境,就是通过争取和平国际环境发展自己,又以自身发展维护和促进世界和平与繁荣。

However, history is not science. There is no law in history. The purpose of recording history is to warn later generations from repeating previous mistakes. In the past one hundred years there have been two tragic world wars. They occurred in an age of limited global interdependence. Now we are in an era when countries have become interdependent as never before and without peace, there is no development. China is committed to the path of peaceful development. China's foreign policy is crafted to serve its development at home by creating an enabling external environment. At the same time China will maintain and promote world peace and prosperity through its own development.

我们不会走历史上一些国家走过的老路。中国致力于实现民族复兴的中国梦,与此同时,中国梦也是世界梦,我们希望中国梦与“美国梦”、“欧洲梦”和“非洲梦”联合起来一起实现,中国人有这样的胸襟。

China will not follow the footsteps of some countries in the past. China is dedicated to realising the 'Chinese Dream' of national rejuvenation. The 'Chinese Dream' is in line with the world's dream. China hopes the 'Chinese Dream' will come true together with the 'American dream', 'European dream' and 'African dream'. I assure you of China's magnanimity.

近两年,中国提出并逐步丰富了“新型大国关系”的理念,核心特征是相互尊重、互利共赢的合作伙伴关系。这不仅是中美关系发展的现实需要,也为中国与其他大国发展关系提供了思路。具体而言,就是不冲突、不对抗,客观理性看待彼此战略意图,通过对话合作、而非对抗冲突的方式,妥善处理矛盾和分歧;相互尊重各自选择的社会制度和发展道路,尊重彼此核心利益和重大关切;摒弃零和思维,在追求自身利益时兼顾对方利益,在寻求自身发展时促进共同发展,实现互利共赢。

In recent years China has initiated and further developed the concept of 'new power relations'. This new type of relations between big countries is defined by a partnership of mutual respect and mutual benefit. This is not only necessary for China-US relations. It is also an inspiration for China's relations with other countries. To be specific, such relations feature non-conflict and non-confrontation. It requires the following principles:

• Reasonably view each other's strategic intentions

• Properly handle differences through dialogue and cooperation.

• Respect each other's choice of social system/development path

• Respect each other's core interests and major concerns.

• Discard a zero-sum game mindset.

• Accommodate others' interests while pursuing one's own.

• And promote common development while achieving one's own.

我相信,世界之大,完全有中美两国共同发展的空间,也有世界各国共享繁荣的空间。

I believe that our world is big enough for China and the US to grow together, and big enough for all countries to prosper together.

本文通过“一个拐点、两个指数和两个陷阱”介绍了中国今后发展的一些举措和思路,涉及中国的经济、社会、生态建设和对外政策,希望这样的分析能为大家了解和研究中国的未来走向提供一些观察角度和思考方向。

Through one turning point, two indices and two traps, this article has in effect laid out China's measures and visions for future development. This covers China's economic, social, environmental and foreign policies. I hope that this analysis will offer you a perspective to study and comprehend China's future trajectory.

阿尔弗雷德•马歇尔爵士有一个著名的个人信条:“简单的道理就是错误的道理。”中国的发展,是人类历史上规模和挑战前所未有的复杂课题,不会有一个简单的解决方案,也不会是一帆风顺。但是,13亿中国人有勇气和信心战胜各种困难和挑战,实现中华民族的伟大复兴,同时为世界的增长和繁荣做出新的更大贡献。

Sir Alfred Marshall held a personal credo: "A simple explanation, for the very fact of being simple, is certainly wrong."

China's development is an endeavour never seen in human history both by scale, speed and by complexity. There will be no simple solution. It will not be plain sailing. However, 1.3 billion Chinese people have the courage and confidence to surmount all difficulties and challenges on our way forward.

Chinese people will fulfill their nation's great revitalisation in the years ahead.

In turn that advance will make an even greater contribution to global growth and prosperity.

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