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如何评估撒切尔政治遗产


来源:FT    作者:FT   时间:2013-04-09 13:56   点击: 次  


如何评估撒切尔政治遗产
Thatcher: the great transformer

 
玛格丽特•撒切尔(Margaret Thatcher)是英国自19世纪末期以来在和平时期最重要的首相。她推翻了有关政府与市场之间关系的基本假设,从而转变英国政治版图。
Margaret Thatcher was Britain’s most important peacetime prime minister since the late 19th century. She transformed British politics by overturning the ruling assumptions about the relationship between the state and the market.
 
她在全球舞台上也是一个大人物。她与罗纳德•里根(Ronald Reagan)在意识形态上志同道合,这使她在世界事务中扮演重大角色,她以后的英国政界人士不再可能扮演这种角色。
She also was a towering figure on the global stage. Her close ideological connection with Ronald Reagan helped give her a role in the world unlikely ever again to be occupied by a British politician.
 
真正的信徒把她视为自由市场的“圣女贞德”,致力于全方位缩减政府职能。但在现实中,她是一个务实的政界人士,无意做出“政治自杀”的企图,比如拆毁福利制度的支柱。
True believers view her as a Saint Joan of free markets, dedicated to rolling back the state in all its dimensions. In reality, however, she was a pragmatic politician who showed little interest in embarking on politically suicidal attempts to demolish pillars of the welfare state.
 
然而,她在担任首相期间推动了重大转变。她的政治遗产包括:放开外汇管制和劳动力市场;削减最高所得税率;转变工会的法律地位,挫败以好斗分子为中坚力量的劳工组织;对国有化产业的大部分实行私有化;以及为金融业松绑。
Yet, hers was a transformational premiership. Her legacies include liberalisation of exchange controls and labour markets, a cut in top income tax rates, transformation of the legal position of trade unions and defeat of militant organised labour, privatisation of most nationalised industries and the liberalisation of finance.
 
在宏观经济政策方面,她执掌的政府最初奉行货币主义,最终却围绕汇率在货币政策中的角色发生纠纷。但是,摒弃凯恩斯主义财政政策,转向依靠货币政策,是在她的任期内得到确立的。
In macroeconomic policy, her governments started with monetarism and ended with a dispute over the role of exchange rates in monetary policy. But the rejection of Keynesian fiscal policy and the shift to relying on monetary policy, in its place, were cemented under her.
 
她在欧洲也扮演了一个大角色,为发起单一市场计划做出贡献。她将此视为输出经济自由主义的尝试。但她对干预式的后果感到焦虑,并坚定反对单一货币。她在1988年的一次演讲中表示,“我们在英国成功地收缩政府的触角,绝不是为了看到它们在欧洲层面恢复原形,”此言对她和她所在的英国保守党而言是一个转折点。
She played a large role in Europe, as well, contributing to launching the single market programme. This she saw as an attempt to export liberal economics. But she became anxious about the dirigiste consequences and was staunchly opposed to the single currency. Her speech in 1988 when she said “We have not successfully rolled back the frontiers of the state in Britain, only to see them reimposed at a European level”, was a turning point for her and her party.
 
在世界舞台上,她的影响力源自她立场鲜明地捍卫自由市场,以及她与美国之间的紧密纽带。在私有化问题上,她让许多人相信,即便是带有遗留的社会主义成份的国家,也可以缩减公有制。全球很多国家走上了私有化道路。那么,如何评估她的政治遗产呢?
On the world stage, her influence rested on her outspoken defence of free markets and her close bond to the US. On privatisation, she persuaded many that even countries with socialist legacies could roll back state ownership. Much of the world followed this example. So how to assess her legacy?
 
就英国而言,上世纪80、90年代和本世纪最初10年,是自19世纪以来人均国内生产总值(GDP)增速首次持续超过欧洲其它大型经济体的时期。不幸的是,全球金融危机后的经济困境、严重的不平等、顽固的地区失衡,以及过度依赖不稳定的金融业,给这一成功蒙上了阴影。
For the UK, the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s marked the first sustained period when GDP per head rose more than in the other large European economies, since the 19th century. Unfortunately, the post-crisis economic malaise, the high inequality, the persistent regional imbalances and the over-reliance on an unstable financial sector mar this success.
 
然而,即使撒切尔曾是(而且仍是)一个导致观点两极分化的人物,英国政治仍深受她的影响。事实证明,她对如此迥异的国家采用欧洲单一货币的担心是有先见之明的。
Nevertheless, even though she was – and is – an intensely divisive figure, UK politics remain in her thrall. Her worries about the obstacles to a single European currency for such different countries have proved prescient.
 
全球而言,撒切尔卸任时,适逢苏联解体,后者对她宣告的逼退社会主义是一个胜利。在中国,天安门广场抗议后,改革似乎被放弃了。然而,如果有人问,哪一个领导人在通过引入市场机制转变世界方面做得最多,那么答案将是邓小平,不是里根,也不是撒切尔。
Globally, the end of Thatcher’s period in office coincided with the collapse of the Soviet Union, a triumph for the rollback of socialism she proclaimed. After the Tiananmen protests, China’s reform seemed aborted. Yet if one asks which leader did most to transform the world by a shift to markets the answer would be Deng Xiaoping, not Reagan or Thatcher.
 
她是一个政治巨人,可她置身于一个走下坡路的国家。她代表自由市场的复兴和政府角色的缩减。然而,当今推崇相对自由的市场的是新兴经济体,而不是西方。这不是她的作为,但她完全有理由视其为一项重大成功。
She was a political giant, albeit within a declining nation. She stood for a revival of free markets and a declining role of the state. Today, however, it is not the west, but emerging economies, that are the flag-bearers of relatively free markets. This was far from her doing. But she could well have regarded this as a great success.
 
她在欣赏新兴经济体表现的同时,必定也会对英国本身的状况感到失望。从历史上看,英国经济复兴大多不能持久。今天,英国在后撒切尔时代的复兴与其说像是现实,不如说更像幻觉。
Her appreciation would have surely been marred by disappointment over the state of her own country. History has not been kind to confidence in a durable British economic resurgence. Today, alas, the post-Thatcher renaissance looks as much illusion as reality.
 


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