扫码触屏 精彩随性

m.kaosee.cn

注册登录
首页 口译 笔译 MTI 面授 网上商城 天之聪翻译
您当前位置: > 口译 > 视译材料 >

国际货币基金组织总裁拉加德在博鳌亚洲论坛2013年年会上的致辞


来源:天之聪教育    作者:天之聪教育   时间:2013-04-08 17:01   点击: 次  


Fulfilling the Asian Dream—Lasting Growth and Shared Prosperity
–Remarks at Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference
 
Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund
 
Hainan, China, April 7, 2013

 
Introduction
 
Good evening. 晚上好 Thank you very much Mr. Secretary General, Ambassador Zhou for your warm introduction and for inviting me here. It is a real pleasure to attend my first Boao Forum for Asia.
 
I enjoy coming to this part of the world where new chapters of prosperity and opportunity seem to unfold continuously before us.
 
Now is a particularly exciting time. The central theme for this year’s Forum captures the spirit of the moment: Asia Seeking Development for All.
 
President Xi Jinping’s allusion to the “China Dream” also captures this sense of renewed vision. As he has put it: “The China dream is, at its root, the people’s dream, it must closely rely on the people to be achieved, and it must continue to benefit the people.”
 
The IMF is your partner in this endeavor. Just as China is changing to fulfill its dream, we are changing too—so that we can be even more effective in our support. We believe that we have a lot to give—our global experience and technical expertise. But we also have a lot to learn from Asia’s remarkable success story.
 
It is in that spirit that I would like to share with you some thoughts about the next steps in fulfilling Asia’s dream—lasting growth and prosperity for all.
 
Let me begin with the current global economic perspective, but with an Asian-biased angle.
 
The Current Global Economic Perspective
 
I dare not imagine where the world economy might be today without Asia. This region has been the consistent global growth leader—driving an astonishing 2/3 of total growth in the five years since the crisis hit.
 
Yours has been a symbiotic success: it has helped you, it has helped the world—and it was achieved by being open to the world.
 
Asia now sits squarely at the cross-roads of global trade. This is good news. But it can also expose Asia to changing fortunes in other parts of the world. At no time was this clearer than when growth tumbled by more than 10 percent in a number of Asian economies in the few months following the Lehman collapse.
 
The question now is whether global prospects are tilted to the upside or the downside. The IMF will be releasing its updated global forecasts next week. Let me give you a little preview without disclosing numbers:
 
A substantial portion of the global economy looks better today than it did last year. Growth continues to strengthen and broaden among the emerging and developing economies. And we are beginning to see momentum pick up in the United States.
 
Again, this is good news. But at the same time, we must not lull ourselves into a false sense of security that all risks have passed. That would be a mistake.
 
What are the risks?
 
(1) Patchy recovery: Low and lopsided growth is not enough. It is not enough of a real recovery; it is not enough of a global recovery.
 
Worries about low growth naturally center on Europe. The continuing recession there reflects the very difficult conditions that persist in the smaller periphery countries as well as some weakness in the core of the Eurozone.
 
While there has been progress on a number of fronts, policy solutions will take time to be completed and effective—including tough adjustments in some individual countries. At the area wide level, the main issue is to push ahead with banking union.
 
(2) Fiscal Exposure: Fiscal risks in some major advanced economies are also weighing on the recovery. In the United States, for example, the spending cuts—known as the Sequester—will take some shine off growth this year. And failure to raise the debt ceiling could derail the recovery.
 
The bigger issue is uncertainty about the future of fiscal policy. Yes, the fiscal cliff has been avoided. But a credible medium-term roadmap to bring down debt remains a key challenge to be addressed if U.S. growth is to be placed on a much more sustainable path.
 
I would add that Japan faces a similar medium-term challenge in devising a durable fiscal solution.
 
Talk of fiscal risks has become a familiar drum beat. Let me say a word or two about possible monetary risks.
 
(3)Monetary Exposure: Monetary policies—including unconventional measures—have helped prop up the advanced economies, and in turn, global growth. The reforms just announced by the Bank of Japan are another welcome step in this direction.
 
There is, however, a limit to how effectively monetary policy can continue to shoulder the lion’s share of this effort. Lending, for example, will be hamstrung without real progress on balance sheet repair. There could also be unintended consequences—including from exit—that policymakers need to plan and watch for. This also comes back to the fiscal uncertainties that are weighing on growth, as well as the need to push ahead with comprehensive structural reforms that can help kickstart growth.
 
What does this mean for Asia?
 
We expect the region to grow by close to 6 percent this year—an enviable performance by any measure.
 
Asian economies have demonstrated their ability and agility to adjust to externalities. Their business has evolved, as demonstrated by a sharp reduction in some of their economies’ current account.
 
Resilient domestic demand, backed by supportive macroeconomic policies, has been the lynchpin of this success. Easier global financial conditions and the resumption of capital inflows have also helped contain the aftermath of the global crisis.
 
But there is another side to this. Strong credit growth has seen the build-up of financial imbalances and rising asset prices in some economies. The hot Hong Kong property market is one example.
 
There is vast diversity across Asia of course—from north to south, east to west, big to small, developed to developing. There is no one-size-fits-all, whether in Asia, or anywhere else.
 
However, provided the global recovery, albeit patchy, stays on track, many countries in Asia will face the issue of when and how to unwind policy support. This will help them to brace against—or better still, stay ahead of—global and domestic risks.
 
This should begin with central banks thinking about the timing and pace of withdrawing monetary support going forward. Macroprudential measures will help to safeguard financial stability and can also help manage potentially volatile capital flows.
 
Eventually, policymakers should aim to return fiscal balances to their healthy pre-2008 levels—that will put Asia in a strong position to withstand any future shocks.
 
Here, the IMF can help by offering timely analysis and advice—early warning—on risks emerging in different parts of the world, as well as the potential “spillover” effects for Asia.
 
I know from my conversations with the region’s leaders that they are seized of these issues. I also know that they are focused on one other issue closer to home: more inclusive growth.
 
Asia has successfully lifted millions of people out of poverty over the past three decades: more than 500 million in China; and another 200 million in other countries.
 
Yet, despite this success, Asia remains home to more than half of the world’s poor. Equally concerning, for most countries in the region, inequality has increased.
 
We must not assume that inequality is an unavoidable by-product of Asia’s strong growth. Korea bucked the trend, for example, reducing inequality during its ‘break out’ growth period mainly in the 1980s.
 
One point is clear: more equal growth is likely to be more durable growth. A number of studies—including from the Fund—have demonstrated this critical finding.
 
The Path to Lasting Growth and Shared Prosperity: Three Priorities
 
This brings me back to the broader point I want to discuss with you tonight: fulfilling Asia’s dream—the path to achieving lasting growth and shared prosperity.
 
Asia’s recipe for growth over the last several decades has served the region well. Yet, like a field that has been farmed year after year, it may need to be rejuvenated. Fulfilling Asia’s dream will rest on identifying this new ground.
 
Where does it lie? I believe in three key areas:
 
1. investing in people;
2. creating the right climate for investment and growth; and
3. ensuring that growth is sustainable by protecting the environment.
 
(1) First, investing in people.
 
So far, investing in physical capital has been an important part of Asia’s growth success. Now, a new wave of growth can come from investing in what economists call “human capital”- that is people!
 
Specifically, what does this mean?
 
First and foremost, it means investing in the health and skills of future workers.
 
It matters for all countries, but especially for those—like India, for example—that are brimming with a youthful population that needs to be educated and equipped for the modern workplace.
 
Yet, today, Asia still spends less on education and health than other regions. In some countries, these expenditures have barely budged in many years. At around 4 percent of GDP, health expenditure in populous countries like Indonesia and the Philippines is less than half of what it is in Latin America.
 
This presents a huge challenge, but also a huge opportunity—to redirect spending toward better investments in people.
 
Take Indonesia again: the budgetary cost of oil and food subsidies is 4 percent of GDP. This is close to what the government spends on health and education. In a case like this, moving gradually to targeted transfers could benefit the poor and the savings could also help increase spending on education and health.
 
So “investing in people” means education and training for the workforce.
 
Secondly, it also means creating the right incentives to join the workforce.
 
Raising labor market participation is particularly important for countries with ageing populations—and dwindling workforces. We see this already in China, Japan, and Korea. Other economies in Asia may also face this issue in the not so distant future. Thailand and Vietnam, for example, also have relatively low fertility rates.
 
The main challenge will be to mobilize Asia’s large untapped workforce. This includes workers in the large informal sectors of India or Indonesia.
 
I mainly have in mind, however, Asia’s greatest untapped resource: women. Across the region, five out of ten women are not part of the work force, compared with just two out of ten men.
 
More and more empirical evidence shows that by increasing women’s employment rates in line with men, the level of GDP increases as well. One recent study estimates that in Japan, for example, GDP would be 9 percent higher by 2020.
 
Ageing societies like Japan and Korea have a ready-made workforce in smart, well-educated women. Why waste it? Here, it is important to remove the disincentives for women to join the workforce—including through more and better child care, and tax reform for second earners.
 
The bottom line: include women. They will transform Asia’s growth model and, after all, it is their “Asian dream” too.
 
Thirdly, investing in people also means protecting the most vulnerable.
 
Effective social safety nets are critical. They protect people from sudden changes in fortune, and they ensure that vulnerable groups are not excluded from the region’s economic success.
 
When we think about China’s vision for a more comprehensive social safety net, including the areas of health and social housing, we know why that matters—particularly to help smooth lengthy transitions from country to urban areas.
 
So my message here is simple: invest in the future of people-- and they will invest in the future of the economy.
 
(2) Which brings me to the second of my three priorities: creating the right climate to boost investment and growth.
 
Asia’s competitive manufacturing and vibrant export sectors have garnered worldwide praise—and for good reason.
 
At the same time, many Asian economies have now reached a level of development that we have seen before in other countries and regions—where sustained slowdowns in growth are most likely to occur. This is the so-called “middle-income trap”.
 
The challenge is to create new opportunities for growth so that Asian countries can avoid this trap.
 
Creating a better environment for entrepreneurship and innovation is one big step. This means opening up opportunities in previously protected markets and professions. It can also help generate better and more affordable products and services for consumers.
 
There are plenty of examples across the region where steps are being taken to deliver these improvements. Take China’s commitment to open up sectors dominated by state-owned enterprises, and to create an equal playing field for state and private firms.
 
I am also thinking of steps to simplify licensing systems, or to improve the enforcement of contracts or property rights. In India, for example, where the government is reforming land titling.
 
The potential for growing urban populations also offers a tremendous potential ‘up side’ to growth. Groups of well-educated and highly skilled people living in the close proximity of an urban setting often become a cradle of ideas and innovation. Think Shanghai, think Shenzhen.
 
Entrepreneurship and innovation can only go so far, however, if people and businesses cannot rely on road or rail to sell or buy products; or if they cannot rely on telecommunications to deliver or use services; or if they cannot borrow to invest. Adequate infrastructure is essential to reduce Asia’s chances of getting caught in the “middle-income trap”.
 
This may not be so much the case here in China, but it is particularly important for some other countries in the region. India and Indonesia, for example, produce 6 times less electricity per capita than in Asia’s advanced economies. Just imagine what they might achieve with a little extra generation capacity.
 
Or think what the region’s smallest and most remote countries in the Pacific could achieve through increased connectivity.
 
As well as physical infrastructure, of course, there is also a need for good financial infrastructure. Well–functioning and effectively regulated financial markets are pivotal to stable and lasting growth.
 
And yet, financial development and regional financial integration are lagging the region’s trade openness and integration. In fact, many of Asia’s more advanced economies are more financially connected with the United States than with other Asian economies.
 
There is incredible scope in Asia for deeper and better integrated financial markets to do more to help support new business, new infrastructure, and new demand.
 
More integrated and deeper Asian bond markets, for example, could help reduce costs. That would help countries in the region, big and small.
 
Imagine a business woman in China, a farmer in Malaysia, and family in New Zealand all invest in a fund. That fund then buys a bond in Hong Kong. And the financing supports a solar and wind project in Myanmar. That sets off a chain reaction of opportunities and jobs across the region, and brings green energy to the countryside.
 
That leads to my third and final priority.
 
(3) Asia needs an environment that supports sustainable growth.
 
The environment affects everything. The food we eat, the water we drink, the air we breathe.
 
More and more, we see environmental issues pressing on economic issues.
 
Recent estimates by the Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, for example, paint a stark picture. In 2010, the cost from pollution and damage to the ecosystem was 1.54 trillion renminbi [$230 billion] or 3.5 percent of GDP. This was three times what it was in 2004.
 
I know environmental issues are on the minds of China’s new leadership. They are on my mind too: because if we exhaust the environment, we might just extinguish the economy.
 
Unpredictable climate events also often come with heavy costs. I am thinking of the massive floods that hit Queensland, Australia in late 2010/early 2011. The related disruptions to food supplies pushed up inflation and disruptions to mining cut into growth and regional trade.
 
Too often, environmentally-friendly and strong growth are pitted against each other. Instead they can and should walk hand-in-hand. Green technologies and green industries can be drivers of growth, provided the fiscal incentives are right. That includes getting prices right on energy and pollution.
 
The IMF recently released a comprehensive analysis of energy subsidies. Globally, these subsidies amount to a staggering $1.9 trillion; roughly equivalent to 8 percent of government revenues. By eliminating those subsidies, we can reduce incentives for excessive energy consumption and that could, in turn, reduce CO2 emissions by about 13 percent.
 
This gives a sense of how economic policies can make a difference for the environment.
 
Yes, Asia needs growth. But Asia also needs green growth that respects environmental sustainability and supports economic sustainability.
 
Conclusion
 
Let me conclude. The Chinese philosopher Zhuangzi once said: “The wise man looks into space and does not regard the small as too little, nor the great as too big, for he knows that, there is no limit to dimensions.”
 
No individual is too small to be part of Asia’s success. And no aspiration is too big. Asia’s dream belongs to all Asians.
 
As the region goes from success to success, I believe that Asia’s leadership in the global economy will go from strength to strength.
 
Asia has transformed the idea of economic cooperation and partnership. And five years into the crisis, we can see how costly the absence of effective cooperation can be. The rest of the world can learn a lot from what Asia has achieved.
 
Asia needs the world; but the world also needs Asia. And the IMF needs Asia’s strength and leadership too.
 
I have every confidence that, in seeking development for all, there is no limit to the dimensions of Asia’s dream.
 
Thank you. 谢谢。
 
亚洲梦的实现——持久增长,共享繁荣
 
国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯蒂娜.拉加德
 
在博鳌亚洲论坛年会上的致辞
 
中国海南,2013年4月7日


引言
 
晚上好!感谢大会秘书长、周大使的盛情介绍和邀请。第一次出席博鳌亚洲论坛,我荣幸之至。
 
访问亚洲是一种享受。在这里,繁荣与机遇的新篇章似乎总是接连不断地在我们面前徐徐展开。
 
此时来到这里,更加令人激动。本届论坛的中心主题正映射出了我们这个时代的精神:亚洲的共同发展之路。
 
习近平主席所阐释的“中国梦”是对这个概念的另一种表述。正如他所说:“中国梦归根到底是人民的梦,必须紧紧依靠人民来实现,必须不断为人民造福。”
 
基金组织将与你们朝着这个方向携手共进。在中国不断变化已实现其梦想的同时,我们的改变也从未停止,因而才能够提供更有力的支持。在我们看来,我们之间的关系很像是一条双行道。我们能提供的帮助有很多——比如全球经验、技术专长,等等。但我们也需要从亚洲的巨大成功经验中汲取养分。
 
本着这样一种精神,我想在此谈一谈接下来要如何继续实现亚洲梦——如何继续寻求持久的增长和共享的繁荣。
 
我想先从当前全球经济形势说起,但将侧重亚洲的角度。
 
当前的全球经济形势
 
我不敢想象,如果没有亚洲,今天的世界经济会是怎样的景象。亚洲地区长期以来一直是全球增长的引领者,在危机爆发后的五年里,全球增长总量有三分之二都是由该地区推动的,着实令人惊叹。
 
亚洲的成功是一种共生性的成功:它对全世界起到了推动作用,而它的实现又得益于对世界的开放。
 
如今,亚洲无疑处在全球贸易的中心位置。这固然是好的,但也可能使其易于受到世界其他地区命运起伏的连累。这一点在雷曼倒闭后的几个月里得到了最充分的印证:亚洲众多经济体的增长率都下挫了10%以上。
 
我们共同关注的一个问题是,全球经济前景如今是倾向上行还是下行?基金组织将在下周公布其最新的全球预测数据。我想给大家作一简单介绍,但不透露具体数字:
 
当前的全球经济似乎大体上强于去年。新兴市场和发展中经济体的增长势头不断加强,范围不断扩大。而且我们看到美国经济也渐有起色。
 
这同样是个好消息。但与此同时,我们不能自欺欺人地认为所有风险都已远去。那样想就错了。
 
存在哪些风险?
 
(1)不完整的复苏:过低的或不对称的增长是不够的。对于真正的复苏,对于全球复苏,这都是远远不够的。
 
有关低增长的忧患自然集中在欧洲。该地区持续的衰退既反映出了较小边缘国家难以摆脱的严重困境, 也反映出了欧元区核心经济体的某些脆弱因素。
 
尽管在若干方面取得了进展,但政策解决方案的完善和取得成效还需假以时日——这其中包括某些国家所实施的艰难调整。在地区层面,主要任务是打造银行业联盟。
 
(2)财政风险:某些主要先进经济体的财政风险也在抑制着经济复苏。比如说,美国的支出削减,也就是所谓的“预算扣押”,会在一定程度上削弱该国今年的增长。并且由于其未能提高债务上限,复苏也将受到阻碍。
 
更大的问题则是关于财政政策走向的不确定性。是的,美国避免了“财政悬崖”。但是,要实现更加可持续的增长,美国必须制订一个可以降低债务的可信的长期路线图。这仍是一个须继续应对的重大挑战。
 
我想补充一点,日本也面临类似的中期挑战,需制定一份持久有效的财政解决方案。
 
关于财政风险的话题似乎是老生常谈了。我想简要谈谈可能出现的货币风险。
 
(3)货币风险:货币政策,包括非常规措施,帮助推动了先进经济体的增长,进而也推动了全球增长。日本央行近期宣布的改革是再次朝这个方向迈出的可喜一步。
 
然而,货币政策继续肩负这一重大使命的有效性却会受到限制。比如,如果资产负债表修复未取得任何实质性进展,贷款就会受挫。而且还可能出现一些不期料的后果,包括因政策退出导致的后果,政策制订者须事先计划,并密切注意。归根结底,还需解决拖累经济增长的财政不确定性,并需推进全面的结构改革,从而推动新一轮的经济增长。
 
这些对亚洲意味着什么?
 
亚洲今年的增长率有望接近6%——无论从哪方面来看,这样的表现都是令人艳羡的。
 
亚洲经济体已证明了它根据部环境作出调整的能力和灵活性。其经济已经发生变化,表现为一些经济体的经常账户急剧减少。
 
在有利的宏观经济政策支撑下,内需极富弹性,这是成功的关键所在。宽松的全球金融状况和资本流入恢复也有助于抑制全球危机带来的后果。
 
但凡事总有两面。在某些经济体,强劲的信贷增长加重了金融失衡,推升了资产价格。高温不退的香港房地产市场就是一个很好的例子。
 
当然,亚洲地区的经济体无论是在位置、规模还是发展程度上都具有广泛的多样性。不可能有包治百病的灵丹妙药,不论是在亚洲,还是在其他地方都是如此。
 
但是,由于全球复苏仍稳步推进(尽管不全面),很多国家都要面临这样一个问题:应何时退出政策支持?又该如何退出?这事关它们能否应对全球和国内风险——甚或始终走在这些风险的前面。
 
在这一方面,央行应首先采取行动,即要考虑今后撤出货币支持的时间和速度。宏观审慎措施将有助于维护金融稳定,同时也有助于管理可能波动不定的资本流动。
 
最终,政策制定者的目标是要使财政差额恢复到2008年以前的健康水平上来,这将使亚洲更好地抵御未来冲击。
 
对此,基金组织可以提供支持。比如,针对世界各地新出现的风险以及亚洲面临的潜在“溢出”效应,我们可以及时提供分析和建议,也就是做出早期预警。
 
我从与本地区领导人的交谈中得知,他们已在着手解决这些问题。我还知道,他们所关注的另一个问题与其本国关系更为密切,那就是:更具包容性的增长。
 
亚洲在过去三十年里成功地使几亿人脱贫:中国有5亿多人口脱贫;还有2亿脱贫人口分布在其他国家。
 
但是,尽管有此成就,在亚洲仍生活着全世界百分之五十以上的贫困人口。同样重要的一点是,在亚洲大部分国家,不平等程度有所加重。  
 
我们不能想当然地认为不平等问题是亚洲强劲增长的必然伴生现象。比如韩国就没有屈从这一趋势,在以20世纪80年代为主的“突破式”增长时期,该国就成功缓解了不平等问题。
 
有一点是明确的:增长越是平等,就越会持久。有很多研究,包括基金组织的研究,都印证了这一极其重要的结论。
 
持久增长与共享繁荣之路:三大要务
 
由此,让我们回到我今晚想谈的一个更普遍的话题,也就是:如何实现亚洲梦——如何走向持久的增长和共享的繁荣。
 
需要说明的是,亚洲过去几十年的增长之道是符合该地区情况的。但是,就如同我们已耕种多年的土地一样,我们可能需为之注入新的活力。亚洲梦能否实现,就取决于我们能否找到这片新的沃土。
 
那么,这片沃土在何方呢?我想可以在三个重要领域中去寻觅:
 
(1) 对人的投资
(2) 创造有利的投资和增长环境;
(3) 通过保护环境确保增长的可持续性
 
 (1) 首先,是对人的投资。
 
到目前为止,亚洲的增长成果有很大一部分都是来自对有形资本的投资。如今的新一轮增长则可能依赖于对经济学家所称的“人力资本”的投资,即“对人的投资”!
 
这具体是指什么呢?
 
首先,这意味着对未来工人的健康和技能进行投资。
 
这对于所有国家来说都很重要, 特别是印度等国,因为这些国家有大量青年人需要接受教育和培训,以适应现代的工作环境。
 
但时至今日,与其他地区相比,亚洲对教育和卫生领域的支出依然较少。在某些国家,此类支出情况多年来几乎未曾改变。在印度尼西亚和菲律宾等人口众多的国家,卫生支出仅占GDP的4%左右,还不到拉丁美洲卫生支出水平的一半。
 
这带来了一个巨大的挑战,但同时也是一个巨大的机遇——可以将支出转向,更好地用于对人的投资。
 
让我们再以印度尼西亚为例:石油和粮食补贴的预算成本占GDP的4%,接近于该国政府对卫生和教育领域的支出。在此情况下,如能逐渐增加有针对性的转移,将使贫困人口受益;储蓄也有助于提高教育和卫生领域的支出水平。
 
因此,对人的投资就意味着为劳动力队伍提供教育和培训。
 
第二,它也意味着创建适宜的激励机制,促进劳动力队伍的壮大。
 
对于存在人口老龄化问题且劳动力人口不断缩减的国家来说,提高劳动力市场参与率尤为重要。中国、日本和韩国已经出现了这种情况。而在不远的将来,亚洲其他经济体可能也无法回避这个问题。比如,泰国和越南也有着相对较低的生育率。
 
当前的主要挑战是,要调用亚洲地区大量未开发的劳动力资源,这包括印度或印度尼西亚庞大的非正规部门中的工人。
 
但我主要想到的是亚洲数量最多的未开发资源:女性群体。在整个地区,每十位女性中就有五位被排挤在劳动力队伍之外,而男性的这一比率仅为十分之二。
 
越来越多的实证证据表明,如果女性就业率与男性就业率一同上升,那么GDP水平也会上升。比如,据近期一项研究估计,日本的GDP将在2020年前上升9%。
 
在日本和韩国这样的老龄化社会,已出现了由天资聪颖、受过良好教育的女性所组成的劳动力队伍。那为何要浪费呢?此外,还应消除那些阻碍女性加入劳动力队伍的因素——可以提供更多更好的幼儿看护服务,或通过税收改革来鼓励女性为家庭赚取第二份收入。
 
关键是,要将女性包容其中。这将使亚洲的增长模式发生转变,而且,这毕竟也是女性群体的“亚洲梦”。
 
第三,对人的投资也意味着保护最弱势群体。
 
有效的社会安全网是极其重要的,可以保护人们免受命运突变之苦,确保脆弱人群不会被排除在地区经济发展成果之外。
 
中国将建成一个更全面的社会安全保障体系,将卫生和社会住房领域涵括在内,想到这一远景规划,我们就可以看出其重要性何在了,它可以让从农村向城市的漫长过渡变得平稳。
 
所以,我想传达的信息很简单:如果对人们的未来投资,他们就会对经济的未来投资。
 
(2) 下面是我想谈的三个重点中的第二点:要创造有利于投资和增长的环境
 
亚洲具有竞争力的制造业和富有活力的出口部门已得到全世界的赞叹——而这自有其原因。
 
但与此同时,就像以往其他国家和地区那样,很多亚洲经济体都已进入一个新的发展阶段——极有可能出现增长的持续放缓,即所谓的“中等收入陷阱”。
 
由此而来的挑战是,要创造新的增长机遇,使亚洲国家得以避开这一陷阱。
 
构建更好的创业和创新环境是重要的一步。这就意味着要开放以往受保护的市场和行业中的机遇。这也有利于为消费者提供更优质、更易负担的产品和服务。
 
亚洲地区很多经济体都在采取旨在实现此类改善的措施。比如,中国承诺开放国有企业主导的部门以及为国有和私人企业创造公平的竞争环境。
 
我还想到了那些旨在简化许可体系或者旨在加强合同执行或物权行使的措施。例如,在印度,政府正在推行的土地所有权改革。
 
城镇人口增长的潜力也为经济增长带来了极大的上行可能。那些受过良好教育、具有较高技术水平且居住地临近城镇环境的劳动力群体往往成为理念和创新的摇篮。上海如此,深圳亦如此。
 
然而,如果民众和企业不能借助公路或铁路来交易产品,不能依靠通信手段来提供或享用服务,或者不能利用贷款来进行投资,那么,任何创业和创新都是徒劳的。
 
若要减少亚洲落入“中等收入陷阱”的风险,完备的基础设施是极为重要的前提。
 
这一情况在中国并不突出,但对于亚洲其他一些国家却尤为重要。比如,印度和印度尼西亚的人均发电量低于亚洲先进经济体六倍。想象一下,如果多一些发电产能,它们又会有怎样的发展成果呢?
 
或者,想想亚洲那些最小、最偏远的太平洋岛国,如果能扩大与其他地区的往来,它们的情况又将如何?
 
当然,同有形的基础设施一样,完善的金融基础设施也是必要的。运作良好且得到有效监管的金融市场是实现稳定持久增长的关键环节。
 
但是,亚洲地区的金融发展和地区金融一体化进程落后于其贸易开放和一体化进程。事实上,与其他亚洲经济体相比,该地区很多最先进的经济体与美国有着更深入的金融联系。
 
亚洲有着极大的空间去深化、改善其一体化的金融市场,从而为新的商业活动、新的基础设施以及新的需求提供更多支持。
 
比如说,亚洲债券市场进一步实现一体化并有更深层次的发展将有助于降低成本。亚洲各国,无论国家大小,都将因此受益。
 
想象一下这种情况:一位中国女商人、一位马来西亚农民和一个新西兰家庭都投资于同一项基金,该项基金随后购买了香港的一支债券,这些资金又被投入到缅甸的太阳能和风能项目中。这就在整个地区引发了连锁效应,带来了诸多机遇和就业岗位,同时也为农村地区引入了绿色能源。
 
下面我要谈谈第三个,也是最后一个要点。
 
 (3) 亚洲需要一个有利于持续增长的环境
 
环境影响着一切。我们吃的食物,喝的水,和呼吸的空气,无一例外。
 
我们看到,环境问题对经济问题的影响在日益加深。
 
比如,中国环境规划院近期的估测结果就让我们看到了形势的严峻。2010年,由污染和生态系统破坏所导致的成本高达1.54万亿人民币(即2300亿美元),占GDP的3.5%。这一数字是2004年的三倍。
 
我知道,中国的新一届领导人正在认真考虑如何解决环境问题。
 
而这也是我所思考的问题:因为如果我们耗尽了环境资源,那么我们的经济也将随之湮灭。
 
不可预见的气候事件也常常会带来巨额成本。我想到了2010年末、2011年初发生在澳大利亚昆士兰的那场大范围的洪灾。由此引发的粮食供应中断推升了通胀率,矿业的紊乱削弱了增长和区域贸易。
 
有利于环境的增长与强劲增长往往被对立起来,其实二者是可以且应当并驾齐驱的。绿色科技和绿色产业可以成为增长的驱动力,但前提是要有适当的财政激励机制,包括针对能源和污染的正确定价。
 
基金组织近期发布了一份有关能源补贴的全面分析报告。在全球范围内,此类补贴总额高达1.9万亿美元;几乎相当于全球政府收入总额的8%。如能取消此类补贴,就可以减少过度能源消耗的动机,这进而会使二氧化碳排放量减少13%左右。
 
由此你就会看到,经济政策对环境有着怎样的影响。
 
亚洲固然要寻求增长。但它也需要一种尊重环境可持续性并促进经济可持续性的绿色增长。
 
结语
 
在结束讲话之前,我想引用中国古代圣哲庄子的一句话:“大知观于远近,故小而不寡,大而不多:知量无穷”。
 
没有哪一个人会渺小到被亚洲的发展成果所忽略,也没有哪一种抱负会宏大到不可实现。亚洲梦是属于所有亚洲人民的。
 
在亚洲赢取一个又一个胜利的同时,我相信其对全球经济的引领作用必将日益增强。
 
亚洲转变了经济合作和伙伴关系的理念。在危机过后的五年里,我们看到,如若缺乏有效合作,将会付出巨大的代价。世界其他地区可以从亚洲的成就中学到很多。
 
亚洲需要世界,世界亦需要亚洲。而基金组织也需要亚洲的力量和领导力。
 
我坚信,在寻求共同发展的道路上,亚洲梦必将无限延伸。
 
谢谢。


    最新优惠 350元《韩刚口译入门学习法》DVD| 350元《韩刚口译实战训练法》DVD |498元李长栓周蕴仪《汉英笔译实战课程》| 498元《李慧CATTI二级口译课程》|598元《夏倩英语口译同传课程》 |398元《俄语口译实战课程》 |

    想快速提高翻译水平吗?

    关注‘天之聪教育’微信,每天都有免费双语学习素材,以及CATTI报考、备考、真题、模拟试题等

    针对口译、笔译学习的精品资料推送, 您可以随时随地通过手机学习!

    打开微信“通讯录”-“添加”-“查找公众号”-输入“kaosee_4008112230”,然后关注;或者来

    扫一扫二维码,速速添加吧!免费口译、笔译课都有机会获得哦~

    课程 课时 优惠价 试听 购买
    CATTI笔译全科通关VIP课程【186课时】【韩刚主讲】 186 ¥798 试听
    马茜口译笔记速记【外交部译员T型笔记体系】 49 ¥398 试听
    备考2019年5月CATTI三级口译全科通关VIP课程【韩刚、底静、马茜、 187 ¥698 试听
    2019年5月CATTI二级口译全科VIP通关班【技巧+实操+真题+模拟】 170课时 ¥798 试听
    CATTI二级口译全科通关VIP课程【韩刚、马茜主讲】 170 ¥798 试听
    来北外高翻听李长栓、周蕴仪讲笔译【备考MTI/CATTI必备课程】 30 ¥498 试听
    CATTI二级口译课程【天之聪明星老师李慧主讲】 47 ¥498 试听
    CATTI三级口译真题精讲【考前冲刺】课程(马茜、韩刚主讲) 74 ¥398 试听

    口译入门未必需要太过深厚的英语功底和太过虚华的学历...
    巩固基本技能,强调学习方法,凝练精妙表达,提升全盘备战 ...
    新概念小语种:无需任何外语基础,会中文就能学!原汁原味实用情景对话,学地道外语!
    西雅图工作英语,好英语,好工作!外企白领必备教程,15CD+2教材!

    顶一下
    (0)

    您可能还感兴趣的英语文章

    音频:李慧详解视译技巧
    (音频)视译训练是口译学习重要的组成部分;特别是同传,现在很多的同传会议不会提前先给材料,都是在会前给译员材料,这就要求译员有很强的视译能力! Managers for a nuclear future It is too early to sa~~
    音频:韩刚CECE逆向翻译法
    韩刚老师解读CECE逆向翻译学习法,现在网上双语的材料繁多,很多学员不知道选择什么样的双语素材,怎么学习?今天,韩刚老师选了一段China Daily的材料,结合CECE学习法,教学员怎么利用双语材料进行~~
    视译资料:刘晓明解析五热词:中国发展前景光明
    3月6日,刘晓明大使在英国《名流》杂志发表署名文章《解析五热词:中国发展前景光明》,全文如下: On 6 March, H.E. Ambassador Liu Xiaoming wrote an article in the FIRST Magazine entitled Why the Pessimists Are Wrong on China. The full text is as follows: 关于中~~
    视译资料:米歇尔•欧巴马将访问中国
    白宫:第一夫人米歇尔欧巴马(Michelle Obama)预定2014年3月19-26日前往中国 THE WHITE HOUSE Office of the First Lady March 3, 2014 White House: First Lady Michelle Obama to Travel to China March 19-26, 2014 第一夫人预定2014年3月19-26日前往中国,3月20-23日访问北京~~

    发表评论:

    表达一些您的想法吧! 已有条评论>>
    文明评论,理性发言!

    最新评论(时间排序)

    视频推荐

    关于天之聪 | 网站动态 | 讲师招聘 | 商务合作 | 联系我们 | 下载专区
    ©2007-2018 中视天之聪教育科技(北京)有限公司 All rights reserved. 版权所有 京ICP备12005225号 京公网安备11010802011421