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关于中国城镇化的八个问题


来源:WSJ    作者:WSJ   时间:2013-02-01 17:24   点击: 次  


 
关于中国城镇化的八个问题
Eight Questions: Tom Miller, 'China's Urban Billion'


在中国领导人为世界第二大经济体寻找新增长来源的过程中,城镇化成为他们新的热门话题。
Urbanization is the new hot topic for China's leaders, as they look for renewed sources of growth for the world's second-biggest economy.

他们的选择对各个方面都有着巨大的影响,如中国需求消费比重的提高,又如能源消费未来道路的决定等。
The choices they make have enormous consequences for everything from rebalancing China's demand toward stronger consumption to determining the future path of energy consumption.

很少有人比唐米乐(Tom Miller)更能理解这些挑战。他刚刚写了一本新书,题为“10亿中国城市人:人类史上最大规模迁徙背后的故事”(China's Urban Billion: The Story Behind the Biggest Migration in Human History)。
Few are better qualified to understand the challenges than Tom Miller, author of a new book called 'China's Urban Billion: The Story Behind the Biggest Migration in Human History.'

唐米乐在中国呆了11年。在为香港《南华早报》(South China Morning Post)和研究公司龙洲经讯(GK Dragonomics)工作期间,他去过85个内地城市。
Mr. Miller is an 11-year veteran of China, and has trekked through 85 mainland cities in the course of his work for Hong Kong's South China Morning Post and research firm GK Dragonomics.

“中国实时报”跟他说,如果不回答我们的八个问题,就要拆了他的房子。
China Real Time threatened to tear down his apartment unless he answered our eight questions.

中国实时报:我们从中国新领导人那里听到了很多有关城镇化的话。他们的城镇化方针有什么新的内容?
唐米乐:以即将担任国务院总理的李克强为首,现在这拨领导人对于城镇化的热情比前一代要高很多。他们相信,发展大规模的繁荣城市将促进国内需求提高,特别是家庭消费的提高。李克强曾许诺加快城镇化、改革中国的户籍制度。这套制度在法律上将农民工同他们的农村老家捆绑在一起,城镇福利中的很大一部分都与他们无缘。他认为,要释放城镇化的全部经济潜能,中国就必须将农民工转变为真正的市民。
We're hearing a lot about urbanization from China's new leaders. What's new about their approach?
The current crop of leaders, led by the incoming premier Li Keqiang, are much more enthusiastically pro-urban than their predecessors. They believe that developing large, prosperous cities will foster greater domestic demand, especially household consumption. Li has promised to speed up urbanization and reform China's household registration system, which legally ties migrant workers to their rural home and bars them from receiving most urban benefits. To unleash the full economic potential of urbanization, he argues, China must turn rural migrants into genuine urban citizens.

中国实时报:户籍制度的改革有多重要?

唐米乐:改革户籍制度是至关重要的。超过2.5亿的农民工在城市里过着二等公民的生活,很少能够享受到政府补贴的教育或医疗。到2030年,中国城镇的下层可能会扩大到5亿,相当于全部城镇居民的一半。这种状况可能会对社会和政治造成危险。
改革户籍制度还有一个强大的经济理由。大部分农民工都集中居住在员工宿舍和城中村里面,依旧局限于低工资的工作,尽可能多地存钱,很少购买商品和服务。从这个方面来讲,大迁徙带来的很多经济果实中国都没有收获。如果中国领导人真的要减轻经济对投资、制造的依赖,向商品和服务的消费倾斜,那么他们就需要帮助城镇农民工变成真正意义上的消费者。户籍改革将是新领导层改革决心的试金石。
How important is reform of the household registration system?

Reform of the household registration─or hukou­─system is vital. More than 250 million migrant workers lead second-class lives in the city, with little access to subsidized schooling or health care. By 2030, China's urban underclass could grow to 500 million people─half of all urban residents. Potentially, this would be socially and politically explosive.
There is also a sound economic case for reform. Ghettoized in worker dormitories and urban slum villages, most migrants remain trapped in low-income jobs, save as much as they can, and buy few goods or services. For this reason, China has failed to reap many of the economic benefits from its huge surge in migration. If China's leaders are serious about tilting the economy away from its reliance on investment and manufacturing towards greater consumption of goods and services, they need to help rural migrants become genuine consumers. Hukou reform is a litmus test of the new leadership's reform credentials.

中国实时报:户籍改革的成本将有多大?
唐米乐:计算中国不断膨胀的城镇人口的供养成本,需要做复杂的估计。政府智库国务院发展研究中心估计,按2010年物价计算,为每一位新市民提供一辈子的社保,将耗资人民币10万元左右(1.6万美元)。发展研究中心估计,假定中国在未来20年让城镇福利惠及农民工,那么每年总成本就将达到1.5万亿元,相当于2010年GDP的3.8%。如果人均成本减掉2万元(发展研究中心假定这部分由个人和单位缴款承担),地方政府一年的负担就会降至1.2万亿元,相当于GDP的3%。
How much would hukou reform cost?

Calculating the cost of providing for China's swelling urban masses relies on educated guesswork. The Development Research Center, a government think tank, estimates that providing life-long social security for each new urbanite would cost around100,000 yuan at 2010 prices ($16,000). Assuming that China extended urban benefits and welfare to 300 million migrant workers over the next 20 years, the DRC's calculations give a grand bill of 1.5 trillion yuan per year, or 3.8% of 2010 GDP. Stripping out 20,000 yuan per person, which the DRC assumes will be paid by individual and employer contributions, lowers the local government burden to 1.2 trillion yuan per year, or 3% of GDP.

中国实时报:土地改革也是必需的。我们能期待什么?

唐米乐:我们可以预期越来越多的农民会将土地出租给其他农民和农业企业,同时农民有可能获准用土地作抵押申请银行贷款。我们还可以预期地方政府会提高发给农民的征地补偿。

但是中国不太可能放弃土地集体所有制的原则,这条原则用于防止个别农民出售其耕种的土地。对于保守派来说,土地私人所有这一步迈的太大。他们担心放开土地权属制度可能让农民重回黑暗的中国封建旧社会。按照中共官方宣传的说法,在封建社会农民是被束缚在贪婪地主身边的奴隶。保守派担心,没有受过教育的农民如果有权转让自己的土地,这可能会滋生一群由失去土地的农民构成的流氓无产者,他们只能拥挤地居住在城市贫民窟里。
Land reform is also required. What can we expect?

We can expect more and more farmers to rent out their land to other farmers and agribusinesses, and it is possible that farmers may be allowed to use their land as security for bank loans. We can also expect farmers to receive more compensation for land requisitioned by local governments.

But China is unlikely to abandon the principle of collective ownership of land, which prevents individual farmers from selling the land they farm. Private ownership is a step too far for conservatives, who worry that liberalizing the land tenure system risks returning farmers to the dark old days of feudal China when, according to Communist Party propaganda, peasants were rent slaves bound to rapacious landlords. Giving uneducated farmers the right to transfer their land, they fear, risks breeding a lumpenproletariat of landless peasants crammed into urban slums.

中国实时报:北京雾霾让污染问题被重新提上议事日程。为了让中国的城市具有环境可持续性,需要做什么工作?

唐米乐:想要打造更加宜居且可持续发展的城市,最实用的方法是限制汽车的使用,遏制城市扩张,投资大众捷运系统。相比城郊不断扩张、居民依靠汽车通勤的大型城市,那种公共交通发发、人口居住密度高的紧凑型城市,其能源利用效率要高得多。

好消息是,中国各大城市正在大力投资于新的地铁网络。坏消息是,城市正在迅速扩张且呈现郊区化的态势,而这主要是因为人们对更大居住空间的需求以及汽车保有量的爆炸式增长。这一点很重要,因为今天打造的城市形态将在未来很多年里决定能源需求并影响消费者行为。
The Beijing smog has put pollution back on the agenda. What's required to make China's cities environmentally sustainable?

The most practical way to create more livable, sustainable cities would be to enforce restrictions on car usage, crack down on urban sprawl, and invest in mass rapid transit systems. Dense, compact cities served by public transport are far more energy efficient than cities with sprawling, car-dependent suburbs.

The good news is that Chinese cities are investing heavily in new subway networks. The bad news is that cities are rapidly expanding and suburbanizing, thanks to demand for more living space and exploding car ownership. This matters, because the shape of cities built today will help determine energy demand and influence consumer behavior for many years to come.

中国实时报:如何确保交通顺畅?

唐米乐:改进城市规划,加大对公共交通(尤其是地铁系统)的投资是至关重要的。但更好的驾驶技术和驾驶礼仪也会有所帮助。令中国城市道路拥堵问题雪上加霜的因素有:战战兢兢、首次上路的新手(通常是女性),一些急脾气的人造成了本可以避免的交通事故(总是男性),以及那些总是随意停车的自私傻瓜(男女都有)。
How about getting the traffic moving?

Improved urban planning and more investment in public transport, particularly subway systems, are vital. But better driving skills and driving etiquette would also help. The congestion in China's cities is exacerbated by dithering first-time drivers (usually female), maniacs who cause avoidable crashes (invariably male), and selfish idiots who park wherever they feel like (both sexes).

中国实时报:你考察过很多中国城市,有什么被我们忽略的有趣细节吗?

唐米乐:大多数中国城市丑陋、灰暗、充满功利主义气息。这些城市试图带给人震撼感,而不是鼓舞人心。不过只要有冰啤酒可以享用,我倒是很乐于身处那些看上去很糟糕的地方,走访那些地方的经历有助于我写这本书。我喜欢长江流域的所有大城市,南京,武汉,尤其是重庆。云南很多城市的那种轻松氛围也令我着迷。云南省会昆明可能是中国最美的大城市。
You've visited a lot of Chinese cities. Any hidden gems?

Most Chinese cities are ugly, grey, utilitarian places which aim to shock and awe rather than inspire hearts and minds. But as long as there's cold beer on offer, I quite enjoy horrible places, which was helpful for writing the book. I like all the big Yangtze River cities─Nanjing, Wuhan and, above all, Chongqing. And I am a fan of the relaxed vibe found in Yunnan's cities. Kunming, Yunnan's capital, is probably the nicest big city in China.

中国实时报:你的书中包含一些粗俗的细节,包括一名被截肢的乞丐上厕所的习惯。还有什么你没在书中透露且愿意和大家分享的趣闻吗?

唐米乐:重庆市中心曾有一片贫民窟,它直到去年才被彻底拆除。来自中国南部边境地区的少数民族在那里兜售海洛因,价格约为人民币50元(约合8美元)一包。那些外来妹妓女(其中一些是吸毒者)会向急于求欢的嫖客收取半包毒品的钱。她们工作的场所是被分成很多隔间的漆黑房间。
There's some salty details in your book─including the toilet habits of an amputee beggar. Anything that didn't make it in you'd like to share?

Until it was demolished last year, there was an area of slum housing in central Chongqing where ethnic minority people from China's southern border region peddled heroin at around 50 yuan a wrap─about $8. Migrant prostitutes, some of them addicts, charged half that for a quick session in a blacked-out room divided into stalls.

 


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