IMF：过度宽松将令世界重陷危机

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IMF：过度宽松将令世界重陷危机

天之聪教育 2013-04-18 天之聪教育 288次

IMF：过度宽松将令世界重陷危机

IMF warns on risks of excessive easing

Extraordinarily loose monetary policy risks sparking credit bubbles that threaten to tip the world back into financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund warned on Wednesday.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)周三警告，异常宽松的货币政策可能引发信贷泡沫，进而使世界重新陷入金融危机。

In its global financial stability report, the fund cautioned that policy reforms were needed urgently to restore long-term health to the financial system before the long-term dangers of monetary stimulus materialised.

该机构在其《全球金融稳定报告》(Global Financial Stability Report)中告诫称，在货币刺激的长期危险显现之前，亟需推行政策改革，以恢复金融体系的长期健康。

Without more progress, the IMF said “the global financial crisis could morph into a more chronic phase, marked by a deterioration of financial conditions and recurring bouts of financial instability”.

IMF表示，若不能取得更多进展，“全球金融危机可能演变成一个更为慢性的阶段，其标志是金融条件恶化，金融不稳定反复爆发。”

In the short term, however, the fund was more upbeat.

不过，IMF对短期前景比较乐观。

José Viñals, IMF head of financial stability, said: “Spring has arrived to global financial markets where after very rainy days and threatening clouds, we are beginning to see some blue skies and more sunny days.”

IMF金融稳定事务主管何塞•维纳尔斯(José Viñals)表示：“全球金融市场已迎来春天，在经历了大雨天和乌云压境的可怕天气后，我们开始看到一些蓝天和比较晴朗的日子。”

The IMF believes unorthodox monetary policies to encourage growth are better than other options, but is concerned that the long-term consequences of such strategies represent a “new risk” to financial stability.

IMF相信，采取鼓励增长的非正统货币政策，好过其它选择，但同时担忧此类战略的长期后果给金融稳定带来“新的风险”。

“When the patient is still under treatment, you should not suspend the medicine, but you should always be vigilant about the side-effects of this medicine,” Mr Viñals said, adding that central banks could not be the “only game in town” to support economic growth.

“在病人接受治疗的时候，你不应该停药，但你应该始终警惕这种药的副作用，”维纳尔斯表示。他补充说，在支持经济增长方面，央行不能是唯一工具。

The report warned that when the time came to end extraordinarily loose monetary policy, the effects could expose vulnerabilities among companies and households facing higher long-term interest rates, destabilise credit markets and reverse capital inflows to emerging economies.

《全球金融稳定报告》警告，异常宽松的货币政策告终之后，其影响可能暴露（面对更高长期利率的）企业和家庭的脆弱性，破坏信贷市场的稳定，逆转涌向新兴经济体的资本流入。

Given these risks and the continued need for stimulus, Mr Viñals advised central banks to maintain extremely low interest rates and money-printing operations. “Lifting interest rates and exiting from these policies now ... would be extraordinarily detrimental, not only for the economy, but also for financial stability”.

考虑到这些风险和持续的刺激需要，维纳尔斯建议各国央行维持极低利率和印钞操作。“现在就提高利率和退出这些政策……将是极其有害的，无论对经济还是对金融稳定都是如此。”

The fund added that there was a sustained need to improve the health of banks in both the eurozone’s troubled eurozone and its core. “Many banks in the euro area periphery remain challenged by elevated funding costs, deteriorating asset quality and weak profits,” the IMF said .

IMF补充称，在欧元区，无论是在陷入困境的外围国家还是在核心区，都有提高银行健康程度的持续必要。“欧元区外围国家的许多银行仍受到融资成本高企、资产质量恶化和利润疲弱的挑战，”IMF表示。

The fund repeated its advice that the eurozone needed to introduce a single resolution regime for banks, providing common backstops and deposit guarantees.

IMF重申其建议，即欧元区需要出台一套针对银行的单一清盘机制，提供共同的支持和存款担保。

In the US, the IMF thought the banking industry’s restructuring was largely complete and that the authorities needed to begin to think about the side-effects of loose monetary policy, which was encouraging some investors to buy much riskier assets and motivating banks to lower lending safeguards. “While we are at the very early stage [of the US recovery], we are already seeing a deterioration in the quality of issuance, which is typical of the late stages of the credit cycle,” Mr Viñals said.

在美国，IMF认为银行业重组已基本完成，当局需要开始考虑宽松货币政策的副作用，这种政策正鼓励一些投资者买入风险高得多的资产，并激励银行降低放贷标准。“尽管我们处于（美国复苏的）非常初步的阶段，但我们已经看到放贷质量恶化这种通常出现于信贷周期最后阶段的现象，”维纳尔斯表示。