中国莫让“城市梦”破碎

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中国莫让“城市梦”破碎

天之聪教育 2013-04-18 天之聪教育 311次

中国莫让“城市梦”破碎

To be truly competitive, China must take care of city-dwellers

Blustery spring winds delivered fresh air to 20m pairs of blackened lungs. But the denizens of China’s capital know that when the winds die down, the toxic smog will return.

春天的大风，为北京2000万居民饱受污染的肺带来了新鲜的空气。但他们知道，一旦大风天过去，有毒的雾霾还会回来。

The horrific air pollution and chronic traffic congestion are driving expatriates and even hardened locals away . At the height of January’s “airpocalypse”, readings of the most harmful types of pollutant were 40 times the levels recommended by the World Health Organisation.

严重的空气污染和长期的交通堵塞，正在促使在京居住的外国人、甚至一些久经考验的本地人离开这个城市。1月份“末日空气”(airpocalypse)在污染最严重的时候，空气中几项最有害的污染物浓度达到了世界卫生组织(WHO)推荐水平的40倍。

Moving hundreds of millions of people off the farm has delivered enormous economic growth. But urbanisation has also brought foul air, clogged roads, cultural destruction and streets of soul-sapping ugliness.

数亿农民向城镇迁移的进程使中国经济得以保持强劲增长，但城镇化也有其负面影响：空气污染、交通堵塞、文化破坏，还有不堪入目的丑陋街道。

The swelling middle class, armed with daily pollution updates on their smartphones and memories of trips to cleaner foreign climes, are demanding better. Local governments are trying to make many cities more livable but the speed and scale of urbanisation make this almost impossible. In 1980 barely 200m lived in cities. In the past three decades, the urban population has grown by 500m. By 2030, it is projected to hit 1bn. One in every eight people on earth will live in a Chinese city.

中国日益庞大的中产阶层要求有一个更好的居住环境。他们的智能手机上有每日更新的空气污染指数，他们的脑海中还存留着去国外旅行时对干净环境的记忆。中国许多城市的政府都在努力让自己的城市变得更宜居，但在目前这种快速、大规模的城镇化背景下，这种努力几乎不可能成功。1980年中国城镇人口还不到两亿人，30年来却增加了5个亿。预计到2030年，中国城镇人口将达到10亿人，相当于全球总人口的八分之一。

Many are grim places. As planners race to house an urban population growing by the size of Australia every year, they are obliterating the past. The ancient courtyards and alleyways around Beijing’s historic Drum and Bell towers await the wrecking ball, as officials create an ersatz tourist experience. Developers are rolling out millions of cookie-cutter apartment blocks, so that every city looks the same.

中国很多城市的面貌都很糟糕。中国每年新增城镇人口数量相当于整个澳大利亚人口，为了给这些人提供住房，规划者正在抹掉城市的历史。北京钟鼓楼周边历史悠久的四合院和胡同正面临被拆的命运，因为相关部门打算将这片区域建成仿古景点。房地产开发商们正大批建设千篇一律的住宅小区，这让每个城市看上去都差不多。

Perhaps most damaging, cities are playthings for local officials who are rewarded for boosting economic growth rather than providing public goods. There is a clear incentive to push for more development at any cost. The result is unhealthy competition between cities, over-investment and endless construction: more roads, new industrial parks, unnecessary airports, bigger government offices. Every city aspires to be a mini-Beijing rather than respond to local needs.

危害最大的或许是，城市的命运掌握在地方政府官员手中，而衡量官员政绩的标准是看他们实现了多少经济增长，而非提供了多少公共品。地方官员有明显动力不顾一切地大搞开发，结果就导致城市间不良竞争、过度投资以及无休止的建设——修建更多道路、新的工业园、没有必要的飞机场，以及更大的政府大楼。每个城市都想将自己建设成缩小版的北京，而无视当地自身的需求。

The environmental impact is devastating. China is already the biggest greenhouse gas emitter, and emissions will grow along with urbanisation. Fewer than 20 per cent of China’s cities meet World Health Organisation standards for sulphur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide levels; barely any for particulate matter.

环境受到了毁灭性的影响。中国目前是世界最大的温室气体排放国，而随着城镇化的推进，中国温室气体排放量还会继续增加。中国符合世卫组织二氧化硫和二氧化氮浓度标准的城市不到20%，而颗粒物浓度符合世卫组织标准的城市更是寥寥无几。

The country’s leaders are trying to cut the amount of energy used to produce each unit of gross domestic product growth, which is high for a country with a moderate level of GDP per head. Almost 200 cities, about one in four, have low-carbon targets. But China will struggle to improve air quality as long as its power stations remain predominantly coal-fired and car ownership soars.

中国领导人正力求降低单位国内生产总值(GDP)的能源消耗量。作为人均GDP水平不高的国家，中国单位GDP能耗过高。中国约四分之一的城市（近200个）制定了低碳目标，但只要发电站仍以火力发电为主，汽车保有量继续猛增，中国的空气质量就仍将难以改善。

Premier Li Keqiang believes more urbanisation will boost household consumption, helping to rebalance an economy too reliant on heavy industry and construction. Within a few months, China will release a plan expected to address how growing cities can avoid the “big city disease” afflicting Beijing.

中国国务院总理李克强认为，推进城镇化将促进家庭消费，减轻中国经济对重工业和建筑业的依赖，有利于实现再平衡。未来数月中国料将发布一项计划，其目标预计将是解决以下问题：发展中的城市如何避免患上目前困扰北京的“大城市病”。

Central planners agree that dense, compact, energy-efficient cities must be built. “Urbanisation is not about sprawling cities,” Mr Li said at last month’s annual meeting of parliament. Yet plans to promote the growth of small cities are hardly the most efficient way of managing urban development. Also needed is a redesign of the dysfunctional fiscal system that requires local governments to pay for more social services than they can afford, forcing cash-strapped cities to sell farmland for development and encouraging wasteful land use. This matters: the shape of cities built today will help determine energy demand and consumer behaviour for years to come. Just look at choked-up Beijing, with its multiplying ring roads.

中央规划者认同以下观点：必须建设集约、节能的城市。李克强在上月举行的一年一度的全国人大会议期间表示：“城镇化不能靠摊大饼。”然而，制定有关促进小城市发展的计划并不是管理城镇开发的最有效方式，除此之外还需要对机能失调的财政体制进行重新设计。在现行制度下，地方政府需要承担超出地方财政承受能力的社会服务支出，这迫使资金紧缺的城市出售农地用于开发，同时也加剧了土地使用的浪费。这个问题关系重大，因为我们今日建设的城市面貌将在未来许多年里决定能源需求和消费者行为。只要看看有着多条环路、交通堵塞的北京就能明白这一点。

As city-dwellers grow richer, they will demand a pleasant living environment. In Beijing, that process has already begun. If China’s capital is to be globally and nationally competitive, it cannot rely on economic heft alone to attract and retain talented, creative residents. Planners and officials must work harder to keep the urban dream intact, purifying the air, investing in public transport, restricting sprawl and respecting cultural heritage. Until that happens, China’s cities will continue to shock and awe but struggle to inspire hearts and minds.

随着城镇居民越来越富裕，他们将要求有一个宜人的居住环境。在北京，居民已经开始提出这种要求。如果中国首都要在全球和全中国保持竞争力，它就不能单纯依赖经济实力来吸引和留住有创造力的优秀人才。中国的规划者和官员们必须付出更多努力来确保“城市梦”不会破碎，这要求净化空气、加大公共交通投入、限制无序扩张、尊重文化遗产。在做到这几点之前，中国城市令人震惊和敬畏、但很难让人心旷神怡的面貌将不会改变。