中国不应担心增长放缓

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中国不应担心增长放缓

天之聪教育 2013-04-16 天之聪教育 183次

中国不应担心增长放缓

China should not fear slower growth

“After 30 years of high-speed economic growth, potential productivity in China has dropped.” So said a senior Chinese official, speaking this week. If true, his statement marks the end of a period that has transformed both China and the global economy.

“我们国家经过30多年的发展以后，潜在的生产率跟以往比是有所下降。”这是一名中国高官本周所说的话。若确是这样，他的声明将标志着转变了中国乃至全球经济面貌的一个时代走到终点。

Of course, this is slow growth with Chinese characteristics. The country is still projected to grow by 7.5 per cent this year – far faster than any of the other of the world’s five largest economies. Since China is now the world’s second-largest economy, growth at this pace still implies an enormous addition of both capacity and demand. Talk of a slump in global demand for commodities or luxury goods or cars is premature.

当然，这是中国特色的缓慢增长。预计中国今年仍将增长7.5%，比全球五大经济体中其它任何经济体都要快得多。由于中国现在是全球第二大经济体，这样的增速仍意味着增添巨大的产能和需求。现在就谈论大宗商品、奢侈品或汽车的全球需求将大幅下滑，为时过早了。

In fact, an era of relatively slower growth in China is welcome news – both for the country and the global economy. The government’s previous insistence that it must achieve growth of at least 8 per cent a year betrayed a neurotic insecurity about social unrest. It has also involved increasingly unacceptable environmental and social costs – as anybody breathing the choking Beijing air can testify. President Xi Jinping’s statement last week that “China’s model of development is not sustainable” was a sign of political maturity.

事实上，中国将迎来一段增长较慢的时期是可喜的消息——无论对中国本身还是对全球经济都是如此。此前中国政府坚称其必须至少实现8%的年度经济增长，这暴露了其担心出现社会不安定的一种神经质的不安全感。这种政策还涉及日益不可接受的环境和社会代价——任何呼吸着北京令人窒息的空气的人都能为此作证。中国国家主席习近平上周称，中国的发展模式是不可持续的。这是政治成熟的一个迹象。

The development model China now needs to modify was over-dependent on exports and state-driven infrastructure investment. Recently, it has been fuelled by an excessively rapid rise in credit. In the aftermath of the Great Recession, the west is no longer in a position to absorb an ever-increasing supply of Chinese exports. China must generate more of its own demand. That is why rapidly rising wages for China’s manufacturing workers are good news.

中国现在需要改良的发展模式，过于依赖出口和政府推动的基础设施投资。近年来，这种模式得到增长过快的信贷的刺激。经历“大衰退”之后的西方，不再能够吸收不断增加的中国出口。中国必须挖掘更大的国内需求。这就是为什么中国制造业工人薪资快速上涨是好消息。

China bears argue that higher pay for factory hands points to an erosion of the country’s competitiveness. In fact, it signals that the fruits of economic growth may now be shared more widely. Chinese workers with more money in their pockets will also mean that China is less dependent on external demand. That, in turn, should lessen the trade tensions that have threatened to provoke protectionism in the west. A China that is no longer obsessed with racking up the fastest growth rate possible should also be able to pay more attention to acute environmental problems.

看空中国的人士辩称，工厂工人薪资上涨，说明中国竞争力减弱。实际上，这个信号显示经济增长的果实现在有望得到更广泛的分享。中国工人口袋里的钱变多还将意味着，中国将降低对外部需求的依赖。这进而应当有助于缓解贸易紧张，此前贸易紧张有引发西方保护主义的危险。不再纠结于尽力加快增长的中国，还应当能够更加关注紧迫的环境问题。

Handled intelligently, the end of China’s era of “high-speed economic growth” could lead to a greener planet and a more balanced global economy. That is surely to be welcomed.

只要运用高度智慧，中国高速经济增长时代的结束，就可能带来一个更加环保的地球和更加均衡的全球经济。那肯定是十分可喜的。